On Belarus: I Ain’t Holding My Breath
- Nikola Ranick
- Sep 12, 2020
- 4 min read
In these testing times, we are all looking for some good news (at least I hope so). Enter an ill-thought of (but decently populated) Central Asian State and its struggle for democratic legitimacy! Long story short, former Soviet satellite Belarus has been in chaos since its botched election on August 9th, with protesters consistently out on the streets for the whole month since then. As the world started to apply pressure and Russia itself seemed indifferent to succession (at least at the time), there emerged a genuine belief amongst analysts that this could be the country's chance to democratically liberalize in the mold of some still-strong Eastern European democracies. But in my opinion, with little-to-no history of democracy, a merely momentarily undivided opposition, and a still-economically stagnant population easily smothered under foreign influence, Belarus is not the ‘IT’ moment that International Democratic Activists are lusting for.
But how did we get here, Basil?? Great question! Belarus is a Kansas-sized country of ten million who-stop me if you have heard this before- was a former Soviet member that, post Cold-War, has maintained authoritarian strongmen rule under the guise of democracy as well as painfully lackluster economic suffocated by state planning-average income as adjusted for purchasing power parity is around $19,000 and has pretty much been stuck there. As with many other countries in a similar mold, discontent was on the rise. And with the additional economic and social strain of Covid, it was clearly Belarus’ turn to boil.
After longtime leader Alexander Lukashenko-once dubbed Europe's Last Dictator- disqualified prominent opposition leaders like (clears throat) Siarhei Tsikhanouski, Viktar Babaryka and the Belarusian Steve Jobs, Valery Tsepkalo, many of their diffusive supporters rallied behind said disqualified candidates newly politicized wives, namely that of Tsikahnouski's, Sviatlanta Tsikhanouskaya (if you cannot already tell, the phonetic complexity of Belarus rivals that of Madagascar). The arrogant Lukashenko let Sviatlana in under the mindset that a politically weakened wife such as she would not put up much of a political fight nor electoral campaign-a grave miscalculation. She and the newly coalesced opposition gained much steam, particularly on the promise to serve as a Caretaker President during a genuine transition period of democratic and open elections in a more fair system.
Considering that Lukashenko and his allies control the entire state apparatus, there should be no shock as to his 70 point win announced post-election. Of course, the real vote outcome is far different, with many on-the-ground analysts suggesting a blowout for Sviatlana perhaps in REVERSE of the numbers presented. With such overwhelming opposition, it's no wonder that fed up Belarusians have taken to the street to demand change democratic accountability and therefore the end of the Lukashenko administration.
So now what? Well, the world is already plenty distracted by Covid and even the most influential democratic player in the region, the European Union, is treading lightly. Commission President Ursula Van der Leyen and her cabinet are fully aware Belarus is enamored within the Russian sphere of influence. Not only do most Belarusians still carry a sympathetic view of Moscow, but too much Western pressure could also lead to a Russian counter-campaign that is at least another political distraction or at most another Crimea. Speaking of which, Russia’s support was chronically fluctuating, at one point so negative as to have Lukashenko arrest a group of Russians on conspiracy to overthrow his government. Now, the coin has flipped to the other side with Putin moving towards his fellow authoritarian. Honestly that shouldn’t be too surprising as political stagnation is better than democratic progression for a country that,
though small, is seemingly so close to Mother Russia. Indeed, the rather random poisoning and hospitalization of longtime Russian leader Alexei Navalny embodies the stress that Putinistas feel with any sort of chaos across the border. I personally always found the Putin-Lukashenko rift a bit odd. The latter is a very weird guy, having come out of nowhere to rule Belarus when it transitioned out of Soviet Russia, and constantly pining for a bizarre Honor-Among-Fascists with his Central Asian and Soviet-Sphere peers. If anything, such personal desire screams malleability- the type of political fluidity a dominant Russia craves.
Alas, Belarus may have had a rather dramatic month, but Lukashenko and his administration’s entrenched roots look to be re-entrenching. His response to protests has accumulated in authoritarian instincts- from police beatings to now disappearing opposition leaders (Sviatlana herself fled with her family to neighboring Lithuania). And the longer Lukashenko doesn’t budge, the more complacent Belarus will become in an equation that clearly has the odds stacked against them. Truly, the longtime history of foreign domination and therefore democratic deficit only add to this bitter expectation. If anything, the period for progress has already passed. Now it is perhaps a matter of how long Belarusians will jockey for international support and how badly the corresponding crackdown will be. And with this pressure, I expect a briefly united opposition coalition to crumble back to its partisan corners.
Could this change overnight? Of course! Such spontaneous developments have happened before in other autocratic countries globally. But at a time where Coronavirus has created a veiled legitimacy for strongmen rule and as an angsty Russia is extra keen to not take any risks, its safe to say that any leadership change in Belarus will not be in a democratically liberal direction. As the old saying goes, mind as well go with the devil you know...
I recommend the following podcasts for more influence from on-the-ground analysts:
Aren’t we glad you read this a couple weeks after the global public thought it was important??
NR
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