On the Canadian Election: Way To Make Me Look Bad!! (And Make First-Past-the-Post Look Good)

Canadians prove their federal electoral system is an accurate reflection of public opinion...at least, for now

Mark Carney: Two Central Banks and a Government!

So much for that! After ripping Canada's Electoral System for failings akin to America's Electoral College* the nation of denim-on-denim concisely rebuked me by electing a government with the most seats and the most votes.

*although, in fairness, my article suggests their system superior to Proportional Representation.

The Governing Liberals and their brand new Prime Minister (and former Central Banker for Canada and the UK) Mark Carney came out on top. With 43% of the vote share, they mustered just under a majority of the seats. This was a sharp turnaround to long held polling in the years prior that showed then-PM Trudeau losing by nearly 25 points. The Conservatives meanwhile, still hit a new record of popular support at 41+% and actually managed to over-perform relative to their seat count by claiming 42% of seats. In tandem, Canadians delivered a result with a much closer seat:vote-ratio than past elections that saw Liberals win the most seats and Conservatives the most votes.

Canada's National Election Results: Look at that spread!

So why did voting intention and outcome align so well? Recall my previous article's meditation on adapting to imperfect systems! In this case, it comes down to Strategic Voting. Voters on the left marked ballots for more winnable candidates over an ideological affiliate, while those on the right did as well, albeit far short of electoral success.

But first, the Left Wing. Yes, nearly all domestic issues skew to the ideological left in Canada relative to America, but that does not mean there is not a left-er wing! Mostly embodied by the National Democratic Party (NDP), as well as some other independent offshoots like the Greens, the Canadian far left has seen abundant success in recent election cycles both federally (the NDP was the official opposition in 2011 with the second most seats) and provincially (past wins in Conservative enclaves like Alberta were also due to the right's inability to tactically vote).

As both parties are technically of the Left, voting crossover is more than possible, as long as there is a will. The Left has a long record of this, like when the Liberals first swept to power in 2015 by regaining many lost NDP seats as well as making inroads in marginal Conservative ridings (aka seats). Cue this year: NDP's net seat count fell to 7, its lowest total in the 21st century, while the Liberals managed to win more, including that of the NDP's Leader! Yes, dear readers, Canada's left wing voters made a conscious choice to reinforce their own ranks by voting strategically for the Liberals over the NDP. Remember when we did that?

Canada's NDP: You know Bernie LOVVESS this shit

This Holistic Left Voting not only made the difference in Liberals triumphing over NDP seats, but allowed Liberal candidates to claim ridings where typical NDP-Liberal splits would enable Conservatives to triumph with a plurality. Look no further than Winnipeg West for its margins:

Clearly, the shift in support toward the Liberals were the deciding factor in competitive seats.

And now to the sad tale of the Right Wing. While the Canadian left voted strategically for the more winnable party, the Right's attempt at the same was successful in winning more seats and votes, but not with a coalition deep enough to get to government Bear in mind that Canadian Conservatives will always suffer from Quebec's tendency to elect its own in-house right wing legislators prioritizing provincial sovereignty over national conservative issues. But even the seats outside of the French Canadian Camp fell victim to the more cohesive left wing vote. Cue Conservative Leader Pierre Polievre losing ghis seat to the Liberals! With both sides of the aisle coordinating, clearly the larger, more ideologically diverse, and representative coalition, emerged victorious. In this respect then, it is an example of a First-Past-the-Past System delivering a remarkable proportional result relative to the will of the people and in line with the (arguably) most acceptable result for the country. Must be nice.

The Trump Effect: A Long or Short Term Realignment

Back to the drawing board, Pierre Poilievre, but you won't be going alone...

Beyond the strict coalition-ary strategy in FPTP, is this narrative of Conservative Failure fair? After all, Poilievre delivered the highest vote share for the Conservatives in Canada in decades, including much of the early 2000s when they led government! Media narratives also under-reported the effect of Canadian Redistricting on its ridings, and the nearly 9-point average swing for each seat. For example, looking for competitive seats was difficult for myself as many of those with narrow margins this time were not narrow in the last election. As the Economist reports, much of the working and nationalized immigrant class voted Conservative, in mappings and margins that bode well for the Conservatives in Toronto in the same way for Trump in NYC. Yet a loss, even if only temporarily, and against a Prime Minister who has never been in Parliament, is still a loss.

Much of this shift in fortune for Canada's Left rests largely on the Trump question. With all the wind in their sales, you can forgive the Conservatives for being a bit hamstrung by how to treat a sudden enemy to the South. After all, US-Canadian elections were only the second most important issue for voters, in contrast to economic and housing issues that have longed stifled Canada, particularly in metropolitan areas. And yet, for those who did list US-Canadian relations most important, they were much more likely to vote solely on this than those who considered economics a larger concern. With a motivated core, the Conservatives' consternation over to hew or haw at Trump ultimately made their voters (or those leaning towards them) just less confident.

Next up is the Land Down Under, which has seen a similar situation of a right wing surge evaporate. This is also to the benefit of the Left, despite never being as far down as the Canadian Liberals and only serving one term in government. Australia is one of those countries with proportional representation features, so I will be interested to see the contours of its results. As to whether these proportional result is evidential of long-run systemic adaption remains questionable. Alas, it could just be another example of the temporary and tumultuous Trump Effect.

Australia's Prime Minister-in-Wanting, Peter Dutton the next jolly chap of the right to 'Thank' Donald Trump