The Mexican Election from the Inside

Especially domestically, the Mexican Election was a political earthquake. It was such a blessing to be able to view this electoral history within Mexico, especially at the center of it all, the Capital of Mexico City. One thing is for sure: The Mexican political status quo has been completely redefined, but the degree and direction of this redefinition will remain to be seen for months, if not years.

Observing the Process

As well as the general city I have been to twice before and the election shuffling and songs that come with it (just listen to MORENA’s…), I observed three polling places. Each had slightly different rules based on the size and those who are chosen to run it (it typically rotates by birthday month as to who must volunteer to oversee it). In order to vote, one must have an official ID card that is supplied free by the government. Polls are open from 8 am-6 pm, being held on a Sunday to keep turnout as high as possible. Ballots are still done with paper and are placed into a box depending on which category one is voting for. Elections were held for President, both houses of Congress, certain state governments, and various local political administrations. In addition to voting for candidates, a voter also votes to reaffirm a party’s registration which allows it to continually exist and be recognized. The absentee ballot process is a bit complicated and must be submitted pretty early, meaning that most is done on the day of. When voting, a voter chooses a candidate but also the party for which the candidate runs under (if said candidate runs under more than one). For example, the PRD and PAN jointly collaborated to present Presidential Nominee Ricardo Anaya. When voting for Anaya, a voter must choose whether they vote for Anaya under PAN, under PRD, or both. It is a bit complicated but is commonplace for some 80 million eligible voters in Mexico. Once polls close on all time zones (as Mexico has three), the exit poll surveys are released by 8 PM, with the official national estimation (or quick count) released at 11. Over the next couple days, the results are finalized and compiled to understand the true standing of each candidate.

Backstory

This election was filled with uncertainty over the inevitable collapse of the status quo. Mexico has essentially been a democracy since 2000, when the political force governing the country since the Mexican Revolution, the PRI, acceded to the conservative PAN’s presidential victory under Vincente Fox (something the PRI had not been willing to do before). This brought in a consecutive 12 years of PAN presidential rules (Mexico has a 6-year one-time term limit) with Fox and then Felipe Calderón who promised change, but ultimately failed to deliver on addressing corruption or much economic disfunction. Indeed, the most enduring legacies of the PAN’s tenure is NAFTA, which has always been questionable for domestic Mexicans at best, and Calderón’s amplification of tension with drug lords, resulting in increasing violence that has cumulated in May being the highest murder month in Mexico on record. In the 2012 election, wary Mexican voters found optimism in Enrique Peña Nieto, a JFK-like younger figure who promised a fresh start through a reformed PRI. Nieto has had some notable accomplishments such as semi-privatization of Mexico’s oil services and controversial teacher reforms, but, alas, economic prosperity and clean governmental ethics are still far from sight. With disappointment in both the PAN, and PRI, it seemed inevitable that another political force would rise to the occasion, and indeed it did. But it was not from the PRD, the traditional left which had come within striking distance of winning (with now president-elect AMLO) in 2006 and 2012, and perhaps did in ‘88, although burned ballots mean the legitimacy of the 1988 election will never be known. Regardless, future president AMLO broke away from this party to form his own leftwing movement, MORENA. He also mad coalitions with a far-right party in order to gain more support. As for the PRD, facing irrelevance as MORENA gobbled up their support, they joined with the far right PAN to propose a Macron-esque coalition candidate, Ricardo Anaya. He has gotten good reviews for being young and savvy. Lastly, the perennial PRI, dragged down by incumbency and historical baggage, put forward Antonio Meade, a man who many Mexicans will admit was perhaps the most moral person in the race personality-wise. But even a good heart cannot conquer the dregs of incumbency. As for polling, the race had shown AMLO with a stunningly large lead the entire time, always near about 50%, with Anaya in second, and Meade close behind. However, this is Mexico and there was still angst, if not downright fear, over the actual voting day, especially considering AMLO’s calls for protests after his narrow loss in 2006 (which he claimed PAN candidate Felipe Calderón stole).

The Results

Yet the polls proved to be mostly right, with AMLO romping, Anaya falling very short, and the PRI almost irrelevant. AMLO got the most vote of any candidate since at least 1988 (and with said rigging accusations, it might possibly have been more than that). When the exit polls were released at 8 PM, Meade and then Anya conceded the results strongly favored AMLO, a stunningly quick and graceful act considering the country’s history. Interestingly, despite investor nervousness, there was not much movement in the peso as much of this result had been expected and already priced into the market. Not only did he kill it in his own race, but MORENA also captured over 70% (!) of the lower house, a near majority in the upper, and numerous governor seats, making it a clear sweep, and arguably one of the most democratic moments in the country’s history thus far. Upon this news, the peso did fall a bit more, viewing this overwhelming win as a mandate for historical change. However, AMLO’s first speech at the Hilton Reforma to mostly journalist’s (and clearly targeted for the professional crowd) gave much abatement to concerned advisor. He talked of unity, obeying the law, and rational change, as opposed to the radical propositions he has suggested before. It was relief, particularly as his last two runs for president saw him consumed by petty arrogance and strongman demeaner. In his first official speeches post-election, he seemed almost like a new man. His later victory proclamation in the public center of the city, Zocalo (of which I observed), was more populist in its rhetoric but nonetheless kept to the rationality that AMLO has tried to channel since winning. He promised his signature 6 am wakeup and hard work to truly root out corruption, increase pensions, and dawn a new age in Mexico. His civil demeanor since then has calmed markets and actually made the peso the best performing currency. The fact that he doesn’t have a majority in the upper house may also help with investor nervousness. As for other parties, the PRI seemed to fall to almost a third-place result, a really amazing result for the dominant party that had authoritarian control for generations. And among other parties, the far-right party AMLO partnered with as well as the PRD had been at risk of decertification

As for what this will mean, it is still hard to say. It is a very long time until AMLO will actually become president-not until December. Until then, there will be much speculation about what AMLO says and if he means it. There will also be uncertainty about NAFTA renegotiations, although he and Trump seem pretty united on possible reforms. Regardless, this is a triumph for democracy in that there is a clean transition of power. At the Zocalo, there was no chaos nor calamity. There was excitement and enthrallment, but all with rationality and pride for democratic institutions. And the public space was left impressively clean, just in time for the Mexico vs. Brazil game the next morning. This is an exciting time for a tried country, and as it seems democracy becomes increasingly out of style, it is nice to know a country such as this seems to have taken a hopeful and fair path.