August 4th Electoral Thots (Part Two)

Imma talk about Kamala some other time, promise. Also nothing important (enough) happened August 11th, sooooo….

Cori Bush following Proper PPE Procedures on the Night of Her Victory

Like Kansas, Missouri also saw a congressional incumbent ousted as progressives pushed out longtime incumbent Lacy Clay in favor of Activist Cori Bush in MO-1 (St. Louis). The Clays (father and son) represented St. Louis City and the surrounding suburbs since the '60s. African American himself, Clay faced mounting criticism over lack of outreach to black youth and seemed increasingly stale in a city with an enduring legacy of segregation and division (the summer protests embodied this frustration). Ultimately, with those political pressures and the dynasty-esque style politics of Clay, Bush's win (in a rematch) is shocking but understandable. What I find most striking is this represents the first time an incumbent ousted by the far left has himself been of a nonwhite background. We are used to tales of ousted white Dems who stayed in office as their districts changed-Eliot Engel, Joe Crowley, Michael Capuano-but someone like Lacy Clay who is more demographically affiliated to his constituents is a new phenomenon (the closest instance was black Congresswoman Yvette Clark’s narrow 52% win in 2018, although this year’s divided field proved to be less strenuous). As more and more city-core Dems are being out-primaried by harder left Dems, I wonder if we will see more entrenched nonwhite incumbents fall from being politically out of lockstep with progressives (again, look to future elections with those officials like Clark). Granted, a larger sample size of such would be instrumental, but unfortunately, congressional candidates of color are still far underrepresented in both overall proportionality as well as district-by-district. The best I can think of is notorious Blue Dog Henry Cuellar, whose margins are getting closer, but he is out of the mainstream for his centrism as opposed to being a moreso ‘typical Democrat.’

Whereas Bush will trounce any Republicans running in the fall, the real swing district is in the outlying suburbs of St. Louis-MO2. Rep. Ann Wagner is a former party state chairwoman and frankly, cream of the crop when it comes to the MO GOP and politicians in general. Indeed, she very well would have been a terrific U.S. Senator (a polished alternative to populist Josh Hawley, who ousted Dem incumbent Claire McCaskill). Alas, her harsh Trump critiques in the run-up to the 2016 election made her less politically tasteful for Team Red in the 2018 and she opted to sit out of the race. Despite this move, Wagner still only

Rep. Wagner is Watching

narrowly won her typically red district against an underwhelming Democrat, Colin Van Ostern (this author was not impressed with his campaign nor personal interviews - but the 4% margin speaks for itself). This year’s opponent is State Senator Jill Schupp, and will likely be a race to the finish with extensive fundraising and tight margins. Currently, most analysts still give Wagner a very minimal lead. A Dem pick-up would be an interesting electoral twist and an embodiment of suburban shift, but it will take a lot more than that to push Missouri back to the purple reputation it carried for much of the 20th century.

Speaking of the state writ-large, don’t expect a Democrat renaissance, but many national Dems are impressed by State Auditor Nicole Galloway’s gubernatorial campaign. I personally have always been much more skeptical of her chances of winning. Indeed, although progressives were amped that Medicaid Expansion finally passed via referendum on Tuesday, I think that race's victory map embodies her electoral conundrum. Although Governor Mike Parson moved

Parson and Galloway: Why So Serious?

the date of the referendum to a lower turnout primary, the opposition to expansion was less than nothing compared to the organized millions spent for ‘Yes’. And despite this financial and enthusiasm inequity, the victory margin was 6.5%. That is a clear and concise win, but when you compare it to other ballot initiatives like Clean Missouri (redistricting reform passed at 62%) and Repeal of Right to Work (67%), that margin is much more dividing and well, polarized. It is a sign of Missouri being set in its new conservative roots. Galloway will not get nearly as many crossover votes on a non-referendum election and with a D next to her name, so I consider her chances iffy at best.

In contrast, progressives should cheer another one for political reform via referendum, as time and time again, statewide votes have reduced traditional partisan distinction and allowed otherwise impossible legislation to come into effect. Case in point is the notorious Clean Missouri ballot initiative of 2018 which very clearly established a Dem gerrymander, best embodied by the referendum mandate that appointment of a state demographer be assigned not to the statewide official most conducive to elections, Secretary of State, but by the State Auditor, ‘coincidentally’ the only Democrat elected statewide (and Galloway herself). Even the rules of allotment emphasize procedures and

Clean Missouri: Is It Though?

logistics which would give Democrats a better shot in a state where they currently face Republican supermajorities in both chambers (although no degree of gerrymander could must majorities for Dems in their current form). Republicans are currently trying to overturn this via a counter referendum in November. Further evidential, the Medicaid initiative that passed made it clear through rather assertive accompanying measures that Republicans should have no actual control over how Medicaid is expanded, or therefore how to limit it. If anything, this is a bittersweet reality: Dems have never been weaker in the state, but still have a clear route to pushing their policies into the public sphere.

One more thing: A lot of pundits thought these races would take awhile to call since mail in ballots are surging in the Covid Era. Jokes on them cuz almost everything was called in a couple hours.

May the Show Go On In the Show-Me State!

NR