Breaking Down Florida

Considering I am pursuing the generic American Vacation of beaching in Florida, what better time to look at the current state of political affairs in the Sunshine State? As opposed to one lump-sum post on the overall condition, I have decided to break it up by thematic area, using my traditional sources (as well as the Tampa Bay Times, who run Politifact, and surprisingly insightful on-the-ground observations). In this first edition, I will focus on recent developments and some of the Gubernatorial Contest:

Recent Developments

The penultimate pivot state, Florida, again proved decisive in its impact, greatly altering the 2016 race via Trump’s win of 120,000 votes. Although Obama won both Florida and his elections handedly, the third-term incumbent curse meant Democrats really needed a shot at states like this to win the Electoral College again. Although under 50%, Trump’s victory was decisive and with the collapse of the Blue Wall, ultimately ended Clinton’s presidential ambitions. Yet this narrow victory has not stopped statewide Democratic hopefuls from running on an anti-Trump platform (more on this below).

Ironically, prior to this presidential showdown, Florida became a tinge more Democratic when its congressional and senatorial legislative lines were thrown out by courts on claims of gerrymandering, resulting in new maps for the 2016 election. These gains, however, were marginal at best, but did provide a growth in the often-depleted ranks of potential Democratic statewide challengers.

Recent special election results have fed speculation of a blue wave, as blue margins have improved in special elections (though not as large as reported in other states). Notably, a previously red open seat in Sarasota went blue for a House candidate (that Democrat, Margaret Goode, actually defeated the son of that seat’s Congressional Representative, Vern Buchanan, who finds himself gearing up for a possibly competitive re-election campaign in a usually safe R+7 district). There is therefore a lot of optimism among the Democrats that Florida could be ripe for the taking. And considering how the suburbs were the only areas where Clinton improved upon Obama’s performance, the growing Florida suburbs are where a lot of attention will be focused on.

Hurricane Maria’s impact on the island of Puerto Rico has also scrambled the political demographics of Florida. As Puerto Rico is a US territory, its residents are free to move in between states just like any other citizen. With the absolute destruction incurred on the island, many have left for other communities in the US. A notable Puerto Rican community lies in Miami, meaning there has been much immigration there. Political response to this now increasingly prevalent ethnic group will be very important considering Florida’s narrow margins. Strong appeal to this community is all that it could take in a tightly contested seat. Of course, this requires these new residents to both register and partake in voting.

Most notably, the Parkland Shooting in Broward County prompted a more somber spotlight on Florida, as the gun control debate raged on once more. Several of the shooter’s survivors have become activists for gun control and their work will no doubt play a role in setting the political narrative for statewide and local races. Although coverage and the aftermath of this event lasted statistically longer than most other gun-oriented ones, the longevity of this issue is still very much in the air (although it did result in mild control legislation coming from the staunchly Republican legislature).

Governor Part 1

There is so much to unpack here that I will first provide a comprehensive view to the crowded (and complicated) Democratic field.

Everyone is running for Florida, and by everyone, I mean not everyone but a whole lot of people. This seat is open, following the term limiting and subsequent Senate run by Republican Governor Rick Scott. Scott, a successful businessman, has won both of his gubernatorial races with slim pluralities, following incumbent governor Charlie Crist’s decision to run for Senator (losing that Republican primary, Crist then ran and lost as an independent against Marco Rubio, before mounting a comeback for the governor’s office as a Democrat, and then finally settling on Florida’s 13th district when redistricting made it essentially safe for Team Blue). Before that, Democrats have not held the governor’s office since 1998, prior to the election of Governor Jeb Bush. If they fail to reclaim it, there will be a dry spell of 20 years without a Democrat running Tallahassee.

One of the earliest announcers, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham saw her political aspirations shaken up by redistricting. One of only two Democrats to win in the ruby-red midterms of 2014, she is the daughter of former Florida Governor Bob Graham. She quite literally grew up in the governor’s mansion and is noted to have a similar style to him. She campaigns often in emotion and engages in her father’s technique of performing an average Floridian’s job for a day while campaigning. (Politico had a great article on her recently, which I highly recommend). When Florida’s map was redistricted prior to 2016, the removal of Tallahassee from District 2 essentially made her seat unelectable for even the most conservative of Democrats. Recognizing this, Graham announced her simultaneous retirement and interest in the governor’s mansion. She has strongly run against Trump, touting views essentially synonymous with the mainstream Democratic Party. However, she is not the most liberal in her strides, notably rejecting legalized Marijuana and Medicare-for-All. But unlike her days in Florida’s 2nd, she is now unafraid to spotlight her other liberal positions to get ahead in the primary.

The original frontrunner, Graham failed to impress in both public support and financial literacy, resulting in top Democrats hoping for the intervention of another more impressive candidate. They got it via now-frontrunner Phillip Levine, a former Cruise Executive. The former Miami Beach Mayor comes from the more Democratic side of the state, while also bragging of himself as a ‘radical centrist.’ His reputation and business acumen almost come off as Trumpian (or perhaps Scottian). Despite his later entry, he has propelled to the lead through both endorsements and his ability to self-fund (he has reportedly been willing to spend up to 25 million dollars). In accordance with his political style, he has been less hostile in regard to Trump relations, but still focuses on the typically Democratic issues such as a living wage, gun safety, and social equity. Indeed, his focus on environmental policy may prove essential in provoking turnout in the southern part of the state most affected by it. Some of his business dealings and their legal challenges, as well as in-office scandals may come back to haunt him though (The Miami New Times had a nice closeup on his strengths and weaknesses).

A close third comes from the Bernie-wing of the Democratic party via Jacksonville Mayor Andrew Gillum. Young, black, and liberal, Gillum represents everything the far-left wing of the Democratic party hopes for. He certainly has the youth vote and was all but endorsed by Parkland Activist Emma Gonzalez. His support for Senator Sander’s Medicare for All Plan and staunch environmental platforms defiantly position him more liberal than most previous gubernatorial contenders (and the others in this race), but he and his supporters are confident this style of politics can galvanize the ‘slumbering left’ and provide a radical victory for starved Floridian Democrats. Still, polling-wise, he is only battling for second place, and interestingly seems to be concentrating most of his attacks on Ms. Graham, perhaps in hopes of peeling off her support and reorienting it as his own. There are other candidates, notably Chris King, but as of now, none have made enough traction to be mentioned. It is worth noting that most polls still show the primary electorate upwards of 50% undecided, meaning this race is one to follow. It can change decisively very quickly.

As for my thoughts, I definitely believe the polls who see Levine as a favorite. Not only does he speak to the state’s center, a political calculus the Democrats there have made before, but his business background is similar to Rick Scott, who despite narrow margins, has seen his popularity grow. In regard to minor scandals, Floridians have overlooked them before and seemed most interested in capable leadership (Trump’s election was statement to this). In this respect, and with outsider narratives the norm, I don’t think it’s too out there to see his strength. However, I think many pundits miss out how this truly is the Year of the Woman. In recent primaries in Pennsylvania and Nebraska, presumed frontrunners fell in the primary electorate, leading many political analysists to suspect that Democrats see voting for a woman as the ultimate rebellion to the Trump presidency. Of course, Florida has a different culture, but it is once more a reminder that money isn’t everything and opinions can surprise on election day. And with so many still undecided, I could see an upset win for Graham as certainly not impossible. I don’t see a path to victory for Gillum without either Graham or Levine dropping out. Personally, I have found his frequent surrogate attacks of Graham both uncouth and unwise, and I do wonder if his very liberal viewpoints actually spark excitement anywhere outside of the city centers (which, to be fair, is where a lot of the primary electorate hails from). This guy seems to be someone who is getting his name out there for future races, whether it be nationally or even in the 2022 Senate Seat.

Up-center (Gillum), Down-center (Levine), Up-Right (Graham). The others are Republicans we will get to next week!