Electoral Thots: August 4th Primary +Some State Info (Part One)

You bet I will be covering the primary covering national contests in my metro (Kansas City-meaning both MO and KS)! I also will have a nice little breakdown of the state of Kansas, serving as a taste of a future analysis segment called called: “States in a Snap.” To sum it up, the night was quality if you were the Republican Establishment in KS and progressives in MO.

KS-Bottoms up for the Suburban GOP

If you stan Sunflower State Politics, you will know the past couple years haven’t been perfect for the GOP statewide. Sure, Trump carried the state by more than 20 points and Republicans in the State House and Senate hover near supermajority status, but this is Kansas! GOP Domination should be expected! What shouldn’t be is anti-GOP sentiment (largely in reaction to Trumpism) in Kansas’ economic core: the Johnson County Suburbs.

For those unfamiliar with the breakdown of the Sunflower State, let me present you with an astoundingly broad painting of the state which is also pretty telling:

Kansas State Breakdown: I know this blows but I'm trying

As the graphic reveals, KS can pretty easily be divided into East and West, with the West embodying rural spread and old town America (put more aptly by Eastern Kansans: “There’s nothing there.”) Social distancing is the norm and small quaint towns dot the map due to either: 1) Growing but politically unimportant Hispanic immigrants working in massive slaughterhouses, or 2) Older, whiter, declining towns suffering from America’s transition to urban/suburban life. The Eastern side, on the other hand, embodies political and social growth, primarily through Johnson County, where 1/5 of the state's population resides (as well as most of its wealth, prestige, and culture). To its north is Wyandotte County and the smaller Kansas City, Kansas, which is, to be totally frank, where the state crams its black population into. Note also Sedgwick County (Wichita and its suburbs)-notorious for containing loud iterations of both political extremes, Douglas County and its bizarre hippie paradise encompassed by KU and the impressively walkable Lawrence, and the Topeka-centered (and chronically underwhelming) Shawnee County.

Recent years have seen the omniscient Johnson County swing from light red (with a tiny Trump win) to solid purple, if not a bare blue tint. These gains are observed best by Democrat house and senate gains (and party switches) as well as the impressive gubernatorial victory of Democrat Laura Kelly in the 2018 midterms. That being said, further reddening has maintained the widely rural state’s staunch Republican lean (it hasn’t had a Democratic senator in nearly 100 years!) But considering that the GOP power base is in those once Ruby Red Suburbs, Party Elites are in need of re-calibration of what a winning coalition looks like as well as a re-assessment of policy that caters to such.

Kelly on Election Night 2018: An Astounding Result Culminated in a Snoozer of a Victory Speech

Laura Kelly demonstrated Democrats’s ability to eke out wins if the environment is right and the opponent is, well, awful. Controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach ran an inarguably terrible primary bid against appointed incumbent Jeff Colyer but managed to come out ahead in a very nasty and last minute result. Moving towards the General, Kobach continued (campaign-wise and electoral-wise) to run a lousy race that was both lazy and disorganized, enough so for Kelly to win by five points in a race that should have been a slam dunk even in a blue wave. Mind you, a variety of outside factors enabled such success, namely fatigue over prior Governor (and current religious ambassador-whatever the hell that is) Sam Brownback’s grotesque tax experiment that nearly bankrupted some of America’s best schools and stapled religious politics as the norm in a state which had traditionally jockeyed between conservative Democrats and technocratic Republicans for generations.

With this trauma still unhealed for many party bigwigs, Kobach’s attempt at Senate was simply too much to bear. Democrats, election analysts, and even the KS Republican Party thought Kobach against Kelly-esque former Republican (and embodiment of Suburban-Trump-Discomfort) Barbara Bollier could once again hand Dems an otherwise out-of-reach seat. Yet such disdain did not create clarity nor unity, as Majority Leader McConnell and state recruiters pined for months to get former Kansas Congressman and current Secretary of State Roger Marshall into the race. This on-again-off-again political drama proved just varying as the Elizabeth Taylor, Richard Burton Marriages, and also ended the same, as filing deadlines passed without Pompeo pulling through. Republicans instead settled on current Congressman Roger Marshall, the Kansas Epitome of a party supporter, who had notably primaried and defeated notorious Freedom Caucus Congressman Tim Huelskamp in 2016.

Marshall-He's just such a good listener

Even if Kobach won, I personally was always skeptical that Democrats could pick this up in a more nationalized year and in a state where even a damaged Trump will win by a healthy margin (hence my Senate Rating being a bit more bullish for the GOP). Fortunately, no need to speculate because Marshall romped with a double digit margin of victory (Republicans were a lot more on edge than that result would suggest), and now looks likely to beat Bollier in November. Democrats are still optimistic, but frankly, they often have been to no avail (see 2014's gubernatorial and senatorial disappointments). Kelly’s victory along with the the 3rd district pickup by Democrat Sharice Davids demonstrated promise in suburban Kansas, but remember how rural the state is! Marshall’s margin may not be impressive, but he will surely fill Robert’s open seat come January.

The same dash of good luck came for GOP Machine when embattled incumbent of the 2nd (Topeka-based) District, Steve Watkins, lost to state treasurer Jake LaTurner after the former faced a rather ironic voting rights scandal. Watkins himself was not a preferred candidate last cycle but won out over primary challengers to face off against former Democratic nominee Davis. Davis was popular in

Steve! We barely knew ye'

this district and actually carried it in his 2014 gubernatorial race, so most pundits (Republican operatives too) expected a tiny win in a very competitive year. Instead, Davis lost and Dems settled with the governorship and the 3rd. With Watkins out (and apparently 100,000's of dollars in debt) and the aspiring LaTurner in (expect to see his name for awhile), I see little reason for a competitive race in the Fall, though some pundits still posit such. Admittedly, Dem nominee (and mayor of Topeka) Michele Da La Isla has an inspiring immigrant story that certainly makes her a nationally appealing candidate. But again...this is Kansas. Her candidacy may be a media darling and attract attention, but attention and elect-ability are not always synonymous even in today’s environment. Expect the district to stick true to its roots.

And in the Republican Primary for the 3rd district, Davids will face her most potent opponent, Amanda Atkins. Dems look likely to tie Atkins to her former boss, Brownback, but it shouldn’t even take this quickly fading political memory for Davids to win another term. Her ‘18 margin was impressive and the environment hasn’t soured for her in the slightest, even if most agree she is overall a meh candidate (but with an impressive background). A more favorable GOP year could put this one back on the map, however-but don't hold your breath for this to be that year.

Last thing to note: Kobach didn't win, but his style of politics still had an edge. Many moderate Republicans in the House and Senate were knocked off by more conservative challengers. Assuming their fall victories, expect politics in the capital of Topeka to get more conservative and even less conducive to Kelly's pragmatic pushes (RIP to proposed-Medicaid Expansion)

And I didn't even get to Missouri yet!

NR