It’s Rabbit Season! Electoral Perception and Sentiments Matter This Year More Than Ever

Courtesy of NCSL:Expect this map to change significantly still by Election Day

As we approach the political whirlwind of election day (or what is likely going to be a gradual crescendo of updated absentee ballots in the subsequent weeks and months), it is important to note the traditional cautions against cash burnout prior to that electoral day rush. In this respect, the tortoise has always bested the hair by balancing out resources and making a candidate presence known until the crucial votes cast on election day. Indeed, one of the most aggravating things about following electoral politics are analysts’ consistently ignored warnings on viewing a race where it currently stands vs. where it can be on election day. For example, most Presidential, House, and Senate maps on any site (FiveThirtyEight, RollCall, etc) predict based on present political trends (that being with Democrats looking pretty bullish) but could change in either direction tomorrow, next week, or on election eve. This is the reality of politics-it is fast moving and requires consistent reevaluation-and even then will predictions likely be off.

THAT BEING SAID, I think early sentiment and understanding of where a race stands in advance of election day may be the most influential as to the eventual outcome than ever before. With the abundance of absentee voting laws being passed to avoid packed spaces and corresponding Covid contamination at the polls, a likely record number of voters will be mailing in their choices this year. And with such an antiquated method, expect at least a notable plurality to make up their minds weeks or even months before November-meaning their votes are cast long before the election eve status quo rears its head. Look no further than this year’s Democratic Primary to see how shifting sentiment and absentee voting can complicate electoral outcomes: Although Joe Biden’s strong performance in South Carolina re-vaulted him to the top of the pack, a sizable portion of California voters had already sent in theirs with the perception of Sanders as ascendant (the exact percentage is tough to track but remember that 60% chose vote by mail in the 2018 election). The end result for Super Tuesday was a stunning win for Biden in nearly all of the contests held on that day, but the absentee-driven California primary still saw Sanders with a substantial lead, one powered almost entirely by those previously-cast absentee votes. Even though the winds had shifted substantially to Biden’s benefit in the days leading up to the contest, the previous Sanders’ votes allowed him to eke out a win he probably wouldn’t have otherwise

So what does this all mean, Basel? I suggest when observers or analysts themselves look at the way any political contest may stand, that should include not only the current narrative, but also the status of early-voting (as its statutes vary strongly by state), absentee ballot requests (in comparison to typical requests and overall turnout), and expected general election turnout (based on previous indicators). Controlling for these variables allow for more nuanced predictions as to whether national political developments, candidate fundraising, or other external factors will have a deciding, or really any, reasonable impact on the eventual outcome. If anything, it mandates candidates herald that classical phrase: ‘The Early Bird Gets the Worm.’ Indeed, with the potential for many voters to submit their choice well in advance to the actual counting, a slow and steady approach may be a strongly unwise method of electoral campaigning.

Expect more predictions and ratings in cognizance of such elastic voting ranges in the future,

NR