Lead the Nation: Wisconsin's Gubernatorial Race is a Test of Developing Political Coalitions

The State's Demography Relative to Michigan and Pennsylvania Make it Ground Zero for Democrat Gains in White Collar Suburbs...and potentially their losses in the Urban Core

Outgoing Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers: Looks like he needs a nap (image stolen from Getty)

Governor Tony Ever's recent announcement he would not run for a consecutive third term (yes, there are actually a lot of states that still allow for that...) sparked a surge of excitement for Democratic Gubernatorial hopefuls in Wisconsin and a surge of panic for their party everywhere else. The Badger State is a incredibly competitive state with a long track record of mixed election results. Though Democrats hold more statewide posts, Wisconsin has hosted incredibly competitive Supreme Court elections in recent years, to say nothing of its penultimate presidential leans and occasional split result for Senate down-the-ticket.

It is those presidential margins and what shapes them that will be most interesting. In 2016, WI had the largest margins for Trump of the three Rust Belt States. This can be explained by the contours of that election: Clinton simply could not muster minority turnout strong enough in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin population centers to be victorious. At the same time, white working-class voters revolted against the Democratic Party top of ticket while white-collar voters stayed nominally Republican sans a blueward drift (Clinton, at the time, hit new records with these Reagan Republicans). That white-collar shift was not enough at the time to tilt any of those states (frankly, it still isn't), but Wisconsin's status as the Whitest of the 3 Swing States explains why it had the strongest Trump Margin. It also explains why Wisconsin was the weakest Biden win of the three in 2020. As Dems still gained in the suburbs, they were also assisted by a return in turnout from the urban cores. With Wisconsin's demographics significantly less urban than PA or MI, its movement back to the Dems was slight at best.

Thank you To WisPolitics for its many brilliant comparison maps you can find here

Wisconsin's demographics again made it a leader in movement in 2024, but this time, with the LEAST movement back towards the GOP. That speaks to the shifting contours of Trump's national win. While running up the working class vote, and, this time, with both white and nonwhite voters, his white-collar votes remained stagnant, if not in decline (further reflective in the startling slim margins in the House). With Trump's strong margins in Milwaukee, these nonwhites (Hispanics make up 8% of the state's population) may have just pushed Trump over the finish line, while the nonwhite shift towards Trump in more diverse PA and MI made those wins much more decisive.

This is a bit jargony, but the gist is that Trump's Coalition has shifted in a way which makes Wisconsin THE Tipping-Point-State, or the one whose outcome is most determinative of the nation's decision. In Pennsylvania, Trump hit new records in the state's center (so-called Pensaltucky) alongside a declining black vote and stronger Hispanic showing across the state. In Michigan, the Hispanic population may be small, but gave Trump one of his strongest showings alongside a historically large Middle Eastern Population which also voted Majority-Trump. In Wisconsin, Trump's continuing inroads with working class voters of all stripes alongside Democrats' white-collar gains make it the most competitive of the three, even if it did still side with its Rust Belt Siblings.

Cue the upcoming Gubernatorial Race. Democrats should have an edge no matter what due to historical success of the out-party in midterm elections. At the same time, they may lose that edge through continual infighting, increasing toxicity of the party's brand, and an anti-incumbency effect from having a blue governor the last eight years. Nonetheless, the FACE of each parties' voters will be telling. Especially when considering downballot success of Dems in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin should favor, however slim, Democrats, as they continuously make inroads with the most likely to vote in midterms: White-collar Whites (especially seniors but that is a whole other article).

This chart isn't the best because it does not capture 2024, but note trends of suburban growth alongside an urban gain that looks to have maxed out and, now be in decline Thanks to Urban Milwaukee for this graphic, accessible here

Still, Wisconsin's nonwhite voting shifts will matter. Although history suggests their turnout as weaker in non-presidential years, the degree of that weakness and the margins by which a the candidate wins will be an indicator for the presidential election two years thereafter. This is all the more suggestive because the Trump Effect -the turning out of unexpected voters for just him and no one else up or down the ballot - is unlikely to reoccur for JD Vance, or whoever else dons the MAGA Mantle.

As they have every election, the WOW counties (Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha) surrounding Milwaukee will be an excellent measure for how far white-collar voters are realigning to the Democrats while inner-city Milwaukee will be the same for nonwhite voters to the Republicans. If Democrats can co-opt continued white-collar support and prevent further hemorrhaging voters of color, if not regain those disenchanted, it sets them up for a strong 2028 showing. At the same time, WOW county support stagnating backward and/or continual Republican-leaning minority turnout in Milwaukee could suggest the opposite: Democrats' national messaging and inability to shift from culture wars to economic ones could be hurting their brand and potentially locking them out of the White House...again. The margins and where specifically they develop are key to understanding both party's coalitions moving forward and the feasibility of crafting winning national coalitions. No matter what, someone is bound to be disappointed.

Wisconsin's Specialty: Never Has Squeaky Cheese been so important! (image stolen from Springside Cheese)