Less Super Tuesday

Mark Sanford’s loss in South Carolina has proved the Republican Party is in Trump’s hands. But what about all that other stuff going on? There may have been less seats up for contention, but a whole lot of electoral drama happened with many winners. But there were also many losers, the biggest being all political analysts for having to deal with ranked choice voting in Maine. Speaking of which…

All Eyes on Maine’s Ranked Choice

Yes, yes, yes, I am not the only person to ponder the implications of Maine’s new system. For those not aware, last cycle saw Maine voters approve a ranked-choice ballot initiative, meaning that during a given election, candidates will be ranked in order of preference. If the leading candidate fails to win a majority, the candidate with the least amount of votes is eliminated, with those votes going to the ranked next choice from those ballots and so on…until a winner reaches a majority. If it sounds complicated, that is because it is! So complicated that the Gubernatorial Democratic primary is still undecided (and probably will be for the next two weeks), with Janet Mills in first with about 1/3 of the vote, and Adam Cote in 2nd with 28.4%. Regardless of whoever makes it through, I have to see the Democrat as the favorite, even in a state that tilted towards Trump. For one, Republican Governor Paul LePage is outgoing, meaning the GOP statewide brand has been tainted from incumbency and also the odd pre-Trump persona that is LePage. This guy is quite a character, and like many Governors in Maine, won both elections with well under a majority. That may explain his attempts to refuse the ranked choice referendum (or like every other referendum, such as Medicaid). That being said, Republicans begin the race right now more unified, considering their gubernatorial candidate, Shawn Moody, made it through with over 55% of the vote.. The State Senate will also be heavily contested, and possibly the House (The former is in Republican hands, and the latter Democrats), but the same cannot be said for U.S. Senate. Especially with ranked choice, Angus King, an Independent who caucuses with the Dems, should smoothly sail to reelection. Will this voting experiment lead to more states choosing ranked choice as well? Perhaps the majoritarian in me says hopefully, but the analyst in me hopes that whatever results in delayed results does not occur (although Maine already was pretty slow anyway…)

Comstock or Bomstock in VA?

Rule Number One in Electoral Politics: The Biggest Loser in any Virginia Election post-2016 is Barbara Comstock. She is by far one of the most skilled and potent members of Congress, and she truly can read her district. But despite an amicable style and moderate policy, things aren’t looking good for her at all. The storm began in 2016, where Comstock did win handedly, but her seat went for Hillary Clinton by 9 points. The incredibly wealthy Loudon County seemed ripe for the taking with its highly educated upper-middle class easily swayed to Clinton. Trump’s win alone meant it would be competitive, even for an incumbent. But then other incumbents started losing there as well. In the 2017 Gubernatorial Election, Ralph Northam’s shock win provoked a wave in Loudon County, and every single incumbent or open seat in Comstock’s district turned blue. This election proved that Loudon not only stuck to its new blue bona fides but was even willing to kick out moderate incumbents within this new identity. The last bit of bad luck comes from this election. While Democrat Jennifer Wexton won a clear victory and has both moderate credentials and female Dem energy behind her, Comstock won her primary, but only with 60% of the vote. This type of result shouldn’t always be fatal, especially in the Trump era, but come on. Comstock is so vulnerable, and even the slightest hint of weakness is incredibly destructive. Most analysts considered her margin incredibly underwhelming. On top of that, borderline neo-Nazi Corey Stewart narrowly won the Senate primary to take on Tim Kaine. This seat was already safe for Dems, but with a candidate as stunningly incompetent as Stewart, turnout, specifically from older educated right-of-center voters, will collapse. Virginia Republicans now face what California ones were dreading…not a single statewide candidate of competence. Comstock will surely lose support sharing the ticket with someone like that. At this point, I am shocked most agencies still have this race as Toss-up. Those ratings are likely due to Comstock’s fierce credentials and political prowess, but I just don’t think it will be enough.

Nevadan Results Determine Nevada’s Partisan Tint

The primary results in NV were only half of this story, but so far so good for Dems. They got strong enough recruits for Congress (Horsford isn’t the greatest for NV-4 but in this environment, his 2014 loss shouldn’t drag him down), Jackie Rosen won a clear victory in the Senate contest, and gubernatorial candidate, Steve Sisolak, won for governor (as if there was any doubt; Harry Reid always gets his way with his picks). For Republicans, Dean Heller was able to dispatch his opponents after fellow Republican Danny Tarkanian dropped out to run for Congress at Trump’s urging. The problem for Heller was that Tarkanian and he were already far enough into the race that the incumbent left his political comfort zone in order to survive the primary. This will surely drag him down as he tries to pivot back to the center for 2018. As for overall turnout, this was the first time in recent history that saw Democratic voters outweigh Republicans (and keep in mind Dems were still doing well statewide anyway). Nevada is a fascinating state of many dichotomies. It has a huge minority population, seemingly benefitting Democrats, but its incredible large chunk of uneducated whites is fertile Trump ground. Ultimately, the state has gone both ways in recent years. The governor has been a Republican since 1999 and 2014 saw crazy popular incumbent Governor Brian Sandoval win in a landslide. That same cycle also saw Republicans taking control of both state chambers and another Congressional seat(NV-4) a mere two years after Heller’s Obama-year win. Yet say what you will about the Reid-machine, but it sure knows how to win elections. After Reid’s retirement, this contested open seat saw the outgoing senator quickly endorse Catherine Cortez-Masto, who would go on to beat powerful Republican centrist Joe Heck for this seat, all while Clinton won the state by 2.5 points. Among other wins, Dems picked up Heck’s open seat (NV-3) and NV-4, as well as regained control over both state chambers. Indeed, Reid recognized the diversifying demographics in Nevada early on and worked them to his advantage. Despite the propensity for both Democrats and Republicans to do well here, it is clear that Democrats are the ones who have been able to maximize their prospects. And in a year as blue-leaning as this one, they are sure to do well. This does not go without saying that vulnerability is possible. Especially if a blue wave fizzles, generic candidates could fall flat, notably Jackie Rosen (her bio almost brags of how generically blue she is). But ultimately, if these trends continue, Nevada’s purplish tilt should no doubt collapse to a solidly bluer lean within the next couple years.