Majorities Are So American: Deciphering the Two New European Prime Ministers this Week

Hold onto your hats American listeners, because your political coalition assumptions are going to be very split after this week in Europe. We firstly have the newest trouble maker in the European Union, a Eurosceptic Italian government run by two Outsider parties that share a populist style…and that’s about it. We also saw the first fall of a Spanish PM via a No-Confidence Vote as the European left gave a wheezing breath to its otherwise decaying corpse. These two developments share similarities, but moreso sharp differences in regard to the future of each within the EU.

Left: Northern League Leader Matteo Salvini; Right: 5 Star Leader Luigi Di Maio

Italy-The Next Populist Domino?

This result was a bit of a political roller coaster, with an Italian election leading to governmental stalemate for several months. Said stalemate broke in the most anti-EU manner, with the two outsider parties agreeing to a coalition government. The President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, displayed a bit of partisan preference when he rejected the cabinet, and therefore the government, of the man whom he had asked to form it, 5 Star Movement-Backed Giuseppe Conte. This rejection centered around the Finance Minister, Paolo Savona. Mr. Savona, an unusual 80+ choice, possessed staunchly anti-EU views, and his appointment provoked suspicions of eventual Italian removal from the Euro. Naturally, the markets panicked (and considering how fragile the Italian ones already are, this was a dangerous development). Mattarella asked the technocrat (and former IMF head) Carlo Cottarelli to form a government in its place, a placeholder which likely would have been refused by the two parties. Such a failed vote was never initiated though, for Mattarella went ahead and approved Conte after his cabinet shuffled Savona to a different position. Now approved, this cabinet and government will be the most Eurosceptic of Western Europe on record, and it, of course, could not come at a more pivotal moment. Italian Populism could provide the most disruption to the EU sphere since Brexit.

Yet what I find most remarkable is the diverse nature of the two populists parties who now share power. The Northern League, based in the country’s north, is a more historically populist party. It has mostly conservative views on finance and regulation and is incredibly Eurosceptic in inclination. It also has connections to Northern secessionists movements (viewpoints of which were toned down for the general election) and a partnership with the surprisingly resurgent Forza Italia under Silvio Berlusconi. But then The Northern League actually beat Forza Italia in their vote share, proving this brand of conservative populism was more superior in its support. With such in mind, this party began its slow march to coalition with the Five Star Movement, a much more Trumpish populist brand. Founded in the past couple years by famous Italian comedian Beppe Grillo, the biggest question of the 5 Star Movement has always been what it truly stands for. It seems to push for enhanced social benefits (pretty astounding for a country in which demographics have already placed it in a huge social burden) and less taxes, as well as sticking it to the establishment (and typical anti-EU sentiment). The party racked up dozens of wins in mayoral by-elections several years ago, with a mixed record at best (the Mayor of Rome, Virginia Raggi, is constantly smeared for her incompetence while Chiara Appendino, the Mayor of Turin, is lauded for her impressive accomplishments). Their campaign of resentments really resonated in the traditionally poorer South as well as the Center, enough so to land them in first place with a plurality of 32%.

When it comes to this new government, I find it smart to ask ‘will it work’ before ‘what will it do?’ As should be clear from the above party breakdown, these two groups have incredibly different ideologies. The Northern League is looking at cutting back benefits and deregulation while the 5 Star wants seemingly the opposite via more economically-left principles. The ability for this coalition to last will depend on if they can unite over their overwhelming discontent for the political establishment and Europhilia writ-large. Also central is the Italian economy, perennially underwhelming for Western Europe. Italians face a eulogy of economic issues, from one of the West’s worst demographic drags to a near bankrupt financial sector. Outside help could assist the country in its woes or lead it to being derided as the next Greece (many have started to do just that). I do not think the latter is likely, but I am just filled with severe uncertainty over this coalition. It is very hard to know how a government will act if not even they do! Needless to say, this partnership will take a different governing approach than typical and party differences mean premature elections could occur…yet this is always a possibility in Italian Politics. Oh, and also the Italian Left is dead.

Newly ousted Mariano Rajoy shaking hands with now-Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez

Stagnating the Inevitable in Spain?

…which cannot be said for the Spanish left! For the Spanish Socialists are now in charge of a minority government. To flashback a bit, Spain has been a democracy since shortly after Franco’s demise in the 70s. From that point on, the Popular Party and the Socialists have switched off as the wielders of power, with center-left and center-right holding governable majorities…up until the 2016 elections. For the first time, no party received more than 50% of seats. The incumbent Popular Party managed to lead in total support but fell well short of its previous majority, with the Socialists coming in second, and new outsider parties Ciudadanos of the Center and Podemos of the far left coming in behind. These parties, along with various regional ones (think Basque and Catalonia), led to a political deadlock resulting in another election with similar results before the Popular Party could get enough assent and abstentions to lead a minority government. Their austerity and fiscal conservatism made it unpopular for a large portion of the population, but their vote total and domineering style ultimately earned it and PM Mariano Rajoy another term in office. Alas, that previous assent by other parties came undone recently, with both electoral agitation and numerous PP corruption scandals resulting in a call for a vote of No-Confidence. Socialist Leader Sánchez was able to rally the sassy Podemos as well as hordes of regional groups to get a majority vote in parliament, the legal maneuver in which a no-confidence vote against the current government can be achieved. This stunning move means a center-left government rules once more in mainstream Europe (the only one, unless you consider the questionably left Swedish Social Democrats or the strange communist-socialist hullabaloo that is the current Portuguese government). Sánchez’s governing style is up in the air, considering he has promised to stick to Rajoy’s recent budget but also will likely be squeezed by Podemos for more spending (in contrast to the 134-seat minority government of the PP, the Socialists only have 87).

Sánchez’s tenure will be important in understanding the viability of mainstream European leftism. Considering that the left combined (Podemos+Socialists) did get the largest chunk of the vote in previous elections, this result may seem heartening for those left-of-center. But the biggest question will be in regard to the next election, where centrist Ciudadanos has been leading for quite a bit of time. If Sánchez is able to govern accordingly and gain traction, this could be the Socialists’ chance to regain ground they were not able to make up in previous Popular Party governments. But if they fail to impress and are drowned in complacent incumbency, they could not only hasten Ciudadanos’ rise but even splinter more of their own support to Podemos. Sánchez himself has proved skilled and maneuverable, first coming out of nowhere to win party leader in ’14, and then regaining the job even after disappointing election results. It appears this moment of reckoning for the Socialists will be as good as it can ever be. Elections here are much less likely, but they aren’t out of the question.