Mississippi’s Educational Exception: Miracle or Mirage

Carey Wright: The face of the Mississippi Miracle is Glowing, But Could It Just Be Something (COVID) in The Air

As a former educator, I have many thoughts on the procedures and narratives surrounding education policy at both state and federal levels. Recently, all the educational buzz has surrounded the so-called Mississippi Miracle, which refers to the rise in educational performance in one of the states with the (historically) worst outcomes. The State Superintendent who oversaw it, Carey Wright, was recently recruited by her home state of Maryland - a politically opposite state- to improve its educational prospects. Surface-level, this is a beautiful opportunity to find merit-based success in cross-partisan politics. Alas, I am long skeptical of the Miracle's authenticity, and am certainly not expecting Maryland's results to improve miraculously either.

COVID in the Classroom: Remember That?

What fuels my skepticism? While I am an eternal optimist, I also know exogenous factors can blur cause from coincidence. Let's not forget the biggest external shock that hit education: COVID-19. This period was particularly detrimental to education in the U.S., showcasing the country's partisan persuasions' prevailing over nuanced practicalities. While Europe remained far stricter in its COVID Conduct overall, their schools still remained closed for less than a term, with almost all reopening to socially distanced in-person learning procedure thereafter. Alternatively, while facing a case of both extremes in enforcement, the U.S. overall prioritized virtual and hybrid learning for the vast majority of its students. These were most pronounced in school environments already the farthest behind, such as lower income areas of color. While these students received minimal, if any, learning via electronic devices in cramped quarters, their suburban and rural counterparts found success in more affluent households and/or (particularly for the latter) naturally non-dense learning spaces conducive to in-person returns.

The political nature of the Lock-downs means that this divide does not always break down coherently, but trends nationwide did emerge nonetheless. This contextualizes the Mississippi Miracle's first caveat: It claims to show increased educational attainment during a time when every competitor, and certainly the strongest ones, were struggling. After all, historically blue states (NJ, CT, MA) typically have the best educational outcomes - as well as suffer from stronger density and sympathies for at-home learning in times of disease. In a state-by-state comparison, therefore, a loss at the top is the lower gain. This could also explain why similarly poor outcome states like Alabama and Louisiana also saw notable gains. While any relative growth should be celebrated, if Mississippi's improvement stemmed more from the failures of other states rather than its own advancements, it reflects a situation of treading water over progress. Although a good amount of content lost during Covid will not be recovered, our post-pandemic landscape does suggest that states could move back into their traditional direction of achievement.

Another exogenous factor was school reopening politics. As with much of the South and Republican states, lock-downs were greeted with suspicion, largely short lived per governor and legislature pressure and/or formal mandates. Certainly with its overwhelming Republican electorates, this was the mindset of local school boards as well. Mississippi schools' forced re-openings suggests gains from maintaining standards that others did not. It was staying the course that led to relative gains rather than actual policy and techniques.

Mississippi's Legislature: despite having the largest proportional of black people relative to any state, the conservative legislature doesn't really reflect that

Speaking of which, I do not have any bone to pick with the actual standards that Ms. Wright has advocated. They are, after all, modeled in the likes of Florida's highly successful early 00's reforms. They emphasize the 'science of reading,' and prioritize smaller literacy groups alongside as well as promote holidng kids back at third grade, should they be under proficient. As a former literacy tutor myself, I memorized the statistic that a child behind in third grade is 10x more likely to not graduate college.

At the same time, I learned, particularly when it comes to states relying on alternative/charter schools, logistical edict from state organizations to administration is a far cry from genuine teaching curriculum enforcement, and certainly a further cry from factual statistics of implementation. After all, too many American schools are poorly equipped to handle resources efficiently, maintain salaries that promote quality teachers over lazy instructors and delusional white saviors, and prevent the nationwide bloat of administrative roles. It is a cruel irony that American education's property tax basis means the toughest teaching jobs pay the least. That so many European nations achieve superior outcomes with larger class sizes and less resources only provides a cherry on top for American Education Frustration.

This Segways to my greatest skepticism towards the Mississippi Miracle: With such poor enforcement already at the nation's worst school districts, the COVID pandemic was a black hole for the worst off students to literally fall out of the school system entirely. If students who perform the least are not included in averages, it will inflate said average. Pandemic policies that discouraged failing students and encouraged grade inflation contributed to this misleading narrative. As low performers fell out of the system and remaining students benefited from lenient grading, the district appeared to improve, even if the actual student outcomes were lacking.

Students Lost: Missing Pupils in Dallas, and this is an organized district!!!

This is a particularly acute situation for Mississippi. Unlike much of the nation's poor, the Magnolia State's low income reside in overwhelmingly rural enclaves (known as the Mississippi Delta). True, the lack of density could have provided an edge for educational outcomes, as rural districts much more easily reopened. But I think it was largely a negative factor for two reasons. Firstly, overall disengagement from lower income students of color is largely under reported. It is, after all, always hard to track genuine student attendance in urban cores. Alongside the country's state of emergency, many of the lowest achieving students remained untested or artificially propped up through undeserved passing grades. I found this through personal experience: The KC Public School District is rumored to have reclaimed its accreditation through these very policies of instant passage and student-transfer.

The Mississippi Delta: It's not great

Moreover, Mississippi's rural poverty once more exacerbates above trends. Urban cores are home to a plethora of services and resources that are just not accessible to their rural counterparts. As such, disengagement and truancy are much more common, and a much higher proportion of its lowest achievers were likely pushed out of the school system. The average rose, but only because its lowest were not there.

Holistically, the Mississippi Exception may be less a miracle and more so a coincidence. We won't know for sure until the next couple years worth of data is out, but I will not be holding my breath. Yet, I still want to acknowledge the achievement of any school district that managed to maintain in-person learning early on or performed virtually. This was an incredibly difficult time for educators and households alike. That doesn't, however, mean that we should look to models and leaders whose success may be coincidental more than merited. I wish Ms. Wright success but fear that her exogenous advantage means her work may not be as impactful. Frankly, potential push back from a more diverse, urban, bureaucratic, union-influenced, and academically divided state like Maryland may mean her efforts have no effect at all.

Regardless, her struggle mirrors the deep problem of educational outcomes in the US. Two of the historically lowest performing states are Mississippi, who spends nearly the lowest dollar per student, and New Mexico, who spends the most. Clearly, the approach has more nuance to it than just monetary output. Looking to leaders to implement vertical-based strategy rather than complain about funding should always be greeted as a win.

Baltimore Public Schools: tell the MS Delta to hold my beer