Nevada: On Competitiveness and ‘Competitiveness’

Political Pundits and Players Alike Need to Get Real with the Silver State, Both for Its Own and Broader Politics’ Sake

Rarely does a state political party apparatus in a one-sided state get, nor need, much attention for organizational prose and/or electoral success. If anything, the notion is a bit counter-intuitive considering natural advantages Democrats and Republicans have in states like California and Missouri, respectively. As for swing states? A successfully organized, run, and administered party can make or break several, if not all, close elections.

Traditionally, the award for most capable swing state party has gone to Wisconsin Republicans (on somewhat of a hiatus after third term aspirant Scott Walker’s nail biter defeat in 2018) and Nevada Democrats. As a midterm inevitably punishing Team Blue approaches, the latter has come under heightened attention. Indeed, even in red wave years, the Nevada Democratic Party has an impressive penchant for success. This organization, dubbed the Reid Machine- named after former Senate Majority Leader and Political Aficionado Harry Reid- has eked out narrow, if not strong, victories in dozens of competitive races in recent history.

The Reid Machine: Harry's Still Got It!

Reid himself beat back a Tea Party Challenger by the narrowest of margins (and against numerous pundit predictions) in the 2010 Bloodbath for Dems. As for the House, Nevada Democrats almost always hols onto half, if not 3 out of the 4, congressional districts, no easy feat considering the competitive district boundaries. The party has utilized impressive rebound energy, bouncing back quickly from a disappointing 2014 election (where GOP Governor Brian Sandoval romped to re-election with over 70% of the vote) by holding the state, albeit ever so narrowly, for Clinton, filling Reid’s open seat with a Democrat, and regaining control of the statehouse by a strong margin. In the years since then, Dems flipped the other U.S. Senate seat (an impressive incumbent defeat), created the first female majority legislature in the country EVER, captured the governor’s mansion after a decade of Republican Rule, and conquered other statewide positions - except Secretary of State. A cherry on top of this decadent decade is the face of Nevada Republicanism, Washoe County (Northern Nevada encompassing Reno) slowly and now, surely, voting left.

Admittedly, the party has many features in its favor. For one, this quickly growing state (whose 14% growth over the past decade has made it larger than Kansas) boasts a massive immigrant population of ⅕ the total population and is 52% nonwhite. Furthermore, the Las Vegas-centered Clark County has ¾ of the state population and is notorious for an expansive service sector consistently ripe with union organizing, progressive policy points, et al.

Viva Las Voters

Still, the identity of Nevada consistently proves one giant contradiction any

outside observer would see as ripe for Republicanism, particularly in the populist era of Donald Trump. The state, itself cheating into early statehood to shore up Abraham Lincoln's Civil War reelection, has always attracted a rather eclectic crowd of both educated business elites and blue collar workers. Its non-college white working class is amongst the largest in the nation and the dense-less lifestyle of the Arid Desert fosters both rampant individualism in the guise of gun toting liberty and chronic governmental distrust. But despite many wins, its close election results and radical roots have always resulted in close (and late) calls for even the most magnetic Dems up and down the ballot.

No wonder then that party operatives and the pundits who observe them still eagerly report the state’s lingering competitiveness. With first term Governor Steve Sisolak up for reelection alongside Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, and newly redistricted legislative and statewide positions, the buzz is all about Nevada Republicans finally getting their moment.

Indeed, Republicans were thrilled to nab two top recruits for Governor: Former Senator Dean Heller (defeated in 2018) and Las Vegas Sheriff Joseph Lombardo. They also have a preferred Senate Candidate in the previously gubernatorial-aspirant Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, himself a child of the Laxalt Political Dynasty. Democrats too see these as high risk races with much cash and influence to be peddled both for Nevada’s own political alignment and how it could affect federal Dem’s delicate House and Senate Majority.

Adam Laxalt: Better Than Ever or Just Back?

Other political players have seized both party’s preoccupation with these seats in suit. Big names such as The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter And Inside Elections have upgraded the contests as more competitive or toss-up, even with the stated incumbency. Analysts point to middling approval ratings for the governor and one of the slowest economic recoveries in the country (it has the third highest unemployment in the nation) as additional factors. Most observers see these races as marquee contests whose narrow results will be indicative of broader trendings in the overall electorate towards, or away from, the Biden Administration and a fragile Democrat Majority.

Alas, despite these expert opinions and beliefs on political potency, this author cannot help but feel a strong cynicism for any and all takes of Nevada as a top tier of competitiveness. For starters, both Heller and Laxalt may be exalted as high profile challengers, but don't forget they both lost in the 2018 midterms. After all, trading political contests is no guarantee of success. Heller himself has always floated in the poisonous middle of trying to both associate and distance himself with Trump when convenient. In such a divided state, this requires appealing to very different audiences in a primary vs a general election. Conversely, Laxalt has tethered himself in a more inherent right wing direction, stoking base voters but potentially alienating the mass of Nevada’s independent voting block. The fact that a coherent formula at juggling both has yet to emerge in a party still enamored by Trump is not too suggestive of a capable swing state campaign.

The structural challenges against Republicans also beget further difficulties. Democrats now hold the power of incumbency, which may weigh them down federally but less so in statewide races. Governor Sisolak has carved an image of a pragmatic business moderate even through a murky economic recovery, Furthermore, historical Get-Out-the-Vote Techniques by labor unions have results that speak for themselves. Further complicating statewide and congressional races are the Democratic Party’s now-firm control over redistricting, likely shoring up support for the majorities they already have. Along with a still-strong Dem state party apparatus, this author ganders that gains for Republicans, though likely, are limited at best.

GOP in NV: So Close AND So Far

Admittedly, polling in Nevada shows a tight race. Public Polling for Senate is limited but presents a race nearly in the margin of error, with Cortez Masto well below an unbeatable majority. Gubernatorial polls are even closer, regardless of which Republican is listed on the ballot. Yet beyond limited surveys, Nevada Polls are also notoriously inaccurate. This curious anomaly likely comes due to the Silver State's unique political culture. As any novice could imagine, reaching every corner of such a strange rural desert state is a challenge to say the least. These inaccuracies are incredibly evident in previous polling averages: Democrats in the last couple cycles have been routinely under-reported in eventual support; the 2018 RCP Statewide Polling Averages were more than five points off! Despite increasingly trendy, this Democrat slight is forgotten-a newscaster faux pas on polling limitations as old as time. Though races may come to narrow victories, this author sees Dems carrying the day surely nonetheless.

It is these narrow but assured results that speak to political tragedy in America’s broader culture. Mississippi originally served as this very poster child-with a reputation for overwhelming Conservatism, most would be shocked to find that Democrats tend to win at least 40% of the vote, a seemingly narrow mark in comparison to the larger hard South where Dem vote totals in the likes of TN, AR, and OK are lucky to beat 33%. This may suggest competitiveness in certain environments, but these numbers hide a stringent partisanship. The problem is not so much overall voter inclinations but voter inelasticity. Though MS races may be tight- in owance to the largest proportion of black Americans of any state- there is no vote budging on this margin. Republicans will always break for their own and Democrats likeso. The much hyped candidacy yet ultimate defeat by longtime Democrat Attorney General Jim Hood in his race for Governor in 2019 is testament to this electoral immobility.

A more contemporary example is Florida. Long held as the pinnacle of political competitiveness, Republicans have won around 30/35 statewide races and also hold the levers of power for congressional and state legislative boundaries. Though margins are always narrow statewide, the outcome is virtually guaranteed to the Republicans, with Trump’s 3.5% win in 2020 strong enough to be considered a landslide. The political firmness exhibits itself here too-always close but never enough to tip over an electorate which, despite an aura of competitiveness, is only ever willing to vote for one of them.

This author suggests the same inelasticity that encapsulates Florida also occurs in Nevada but in the Dem direction. Indeed, every ‘competitive’ state, perhaps except New Hampshire, sees a natural slide toward one party that has become more and more reinforced in our modern era of polarization. Redistricting and incumbency only further flavors this stagnation. Alas, in an era of increased distrust of the other side, even the most middled of states find themselves

The Future is Florida? Run While You Still Can

consistently in one column or the other. That seems to suggest the idea of a swing state, and more broadly a swing electorate, is anything but.