SENATE FOR SIMPS

Thx for this photo of dueling Senate Leaders, Politico

Unveiling this Cycle’s Senate Rankings

As the name suggests, the goal of this site is to communicate complex jargon into more coherent prose for mainstream audiences (which may seem counter-intuitive when considering the vocabulary in this sentence:/). Nonetheless, that is precisely why I am happy to unveil the first in the series of my political rankings: Senate for Simps. The following rankings and forthcoming analysis serve to bridge the gap between the political elite and the interested (or perhaps uninterested) public.

The ranked system is as follows:

These categories reject traditional notions of ‘leans’ and ‘likely,’ both because of their generic-ness as well as the degree of phonic similarity. However, it is similarly in a scaled format. If something is “AF”, it is obviously going to happen (therefore RedAF would indicate a seat certain to stay in Republican hands while BlueAF set for Democrats). Ish begets a likely inclination yet surely not guaranteed, while ? suggests a slight likelihood with still much uncertainty. As the words directly translate to, IDK means ‘I Don’t Know,’ having the potential to go either way.

Our analysis in particular attempts to take in traditional partisan leanings, the appeal of specific candidates, on-the-ground analysis feeling, and, of course, data-driven statistical likelihoods based on polling and formulaic analysis by the mathematical wizards that be.

Below is our initial Senate Forecast:

With each party set to gain one seat from the other (that which is highlighted purple) and three seats undecided, our forecast technically sees Senate control as still up for grabs, although the math strongly gives Republicans the upper hand. Even if Dems were to sweep every Senate Seat in Toss-up, that would still only give them a total of 50 seats (a contrast from their current 47-53), meaning the VP tiebreaker vote would be necessary for the slimmest majority. Of course, if Dems are winning all of these tossups, it is also likely they will win the White House (HOWEVER, based on the electoral college math, Dems could very well win the White House without picking up the Senate).

Speaking of which, remember that 2016 was the first Presidential Election that saw Presidential-Senatorial Victories correlate 100% by party-every state that Trump won with a Senate race also went red, and likeso to Clinton (2018 saw Senate candidates of the opposing party re-elected in their states, but that also was not a presidential election). In this respect then, this analysis strongly correlates to what we expect an eventual Electoral College Map to look like.

Ultimately, barring everything going right for Democrats (a rarity for either party even in an age as polarized as this one), it seems Republicans will have the upper hand. Expect more specific analysis for these races (starting with those most competitive) in the coming days/weeks.

Blessup!

NR