SENATE FOR SIMPS: Elaborating On the Rankings, Part 1
- Nikola Ranick
- Jul 31, 2020
- 6 min read
Remember this?? Well, it is time for some analysis on the most competitive races, starting with AZ (and be warned- this one is a novel). I preface by strongly emphasizing these are my own opinions and not those of others, though professional commentators play a heavy role in both evaluating and clarifying mine.
MCSALLY= AZ Junior (Appointed) Senator. Currently ranked as an IDK.
Martha McSally was appointed to this seat by AZ Governor Doug Ducey in both the wake of Senator John McCain’s passing and her own narrow defeat in the race to replace retiring Senator (and frequent head butter of Trump) Jeff Flake by (absolute legend) Kyrsten Sinema. In a narrow vote that, due to Arizona’s heavy mail-in-ballot initiatives, took about a week to call, Sinema eked out a win through wowing fundraising totals, a genuinely centrist campaign, and a McCain-esque streak of independence that has, like McCain, already resulted in her censor by the state political party apparatus. Of course, the Blue Wave of 2018 was also pivotal to the Sinema's Victory. The author reflects on this previous race for its parallels to this year’s open seat as well.
It is important to emphasize the narrowness of the 2018 results, as McSally’s electoral and political legacy is worthy of much acclaim for its frequent success. Ever so narrowly beating incumbent Ron Barber in 2014 (in another drawn out race), McSally occupied the swingy 2nd District. With Arizona being the only state to have an electoral commission designed to specifically promote competitive districts, she was keen to emphasize both her military background and moderate/practical image, something that largely succeeded. That was an impressive feat in a district with a tragically polarized history: Even most neutral political observers should recognize one of the previous holder of AZ-2, Gabrielle Giffords. Giffords is famous for her inspiring recovery story in the wake of the tragic Tucson-district shooting that saw several of her constituents die and the congresswomen herself shot in the head. Although facing permanent mental and physical disability, she has devoted much of her post-congressional life to the superpaces she and her husband, astronaut (AND CURRENT OPPONENT TO MCSALLY #PoliticalTelenovela) Mark Kelly, have organized to support ballot initiatives and candidates in favor of gun control.
Yet McSally’s strategic formula, like many, many pre-Trump Republicans, began to wither in the post-2016 environment. More and more pundits and polling showed her strongly vulnerable in this epitome of a swing district also ensconced in a national blue tide. Simultaneously her impressive moderate credentials did impress the NRSC as an ideal candidate for Jeff Flake’s opening Senate Seat in a state overall redder than her district. Sure enough, she took this route and like all candidates, struggled between appealing to suburban moderates and the conservative grassroots, most notably in outflanking her Republican primary challengers, red meat stalwart Kelli Ward (who perhaps alarmingly for party bigwigs, now chairs the state party) and Sheriff Joe Arpaio (Maricopa County’s infamous anti-immigrant hawk who himself lost to a 2016 challenger). Considering Flake’s strong anti-Trump persona that arguably cost him the ability to win a primary, extra emphasis on ideological purity was placed on this seat’s fate by the conservative grassroots. And honestly, with how primaries go in an increasingly polarized era, one has to wonder if a single united conservative challenger could have defeated McSally (although her final vote tally was nonetheless 54% of all primary votes).
Moving to the general, McSally had to play catch-up on the fundraising game to a financially ascendant (and essentially primary-free) Kyrsten Sinema, as well as politically court the median voter by (mildly) pivoting to the center. Alongside this effort was an attack strategy based on trying to peel suburban support from Sinema by emphasizing her far-left past, namely anti-war sentiments, and radical radio interviews of yesteryear. Sinema, for her part, frequently avoided even talking about this to the media, a strategy that, though eyebrow raising in an era of political distrust, appeared to work.
When Ducey appointed McSally to McCain’s open seat, it was under the notion that she was both a competent candidate and that her previous loss was so narrow in a state so split that she would be familiar enough for Arizona's voting masses. Ironically, this hasn’t been the case for much of her tenure and most pundits now see her (electorally and financially) as a decent underdog in a state that embodies the ever-increasing suburban burnout towards the Donald.
This time around, depending on who you ask, McSally either has or hasn’t learned her lesson. In cognizance to prior primary wrangling, she has been much more pro-Trump in both rhetoric and policy, a notable change for a once-strongly technocratic pragmatist. Although the author certainly exudes bias, one could not help but cringe as she passive-aggressively dodged questions and conversationally fought with her interviewers (see that podcast here: shorturl.at/auDFV).
All of McSally's woes are a stark contrast to the ever-inspiring Mark Kelly. In addition to the aforementioned Giffords connections as well as a strong military history himself, Kelly’s fundraising makes even Sinema’s look paltry. Astoundingly, polls have consistently shown him not only ahead, but with a substantial-enough lead around 49/50% of the electorate. In an era of iffy-polls, that percentage is seen as the Golden Zone: Even if undecideds go strongly for the candidate behind, there is miniscule room for said candidate to eke out an electoral plurality, let alone a majority. Having seen Kelly speak with wife Giffords several years ago at the Robert Morris Speaker Series in Pittsburgh, this author can also attest to Kelly’s stark personal contrast to McSally: He is methodical yet genuine in political instinct and personality (his impressive answering of a partisan-laced border question spoke to his natural candidate instincts as well as piqued this author’s suspicion of higher office ambitions in the near future).
THAT BEING SAID, as election day approaches and more pundits began to boldly re-calibrate a toss up rating to lean Dem, consider this website skeptical. Remember that the President-Senate wins were 100% in 2016, meaning that every state that voted for a certain party for president followed the same voting preference in incumbent/challenger for senate (Governors were much more split but those races often are). To sum up these concerns, I have strong doubts that any statewide Democrat can land ahead in the Senate race if Trump wins the presidential vote, although AZ is moving purple and moving fast. Recent off-election years have shown Dem victories in several statewide categories, yet with Trump the political scion of this election, crossover voting seems next to impossible. DJT is the political decider for this cycle, moreso than either of the last two. This could change as Arizona (and really everywhere) seem closer to Biden then before. The RealClearPolitics polling average does currently show a narrow Biden lean but it is fragile and emblematic of the current moment to say the least. I cannot help but see this race returning to traditional partisan advantage as election day approaches.
Remarkably, the presumed infallibility of Kelly reminds me strongly of former-Wisconsin Democrat Senator Russ Feingold's fight to regain his old Seat from the one who kicked him out of it in the first place, Ron Johnson. With polls and expectations throughout the entire cycle consistently showing Feingold triumphant, Wisconsin’s surprise Trump Tint all but saved Johnson from defeat. AZ could provide the same saving grace to McSally.
That being said, this author should be mindful of contradicting himself. Remember the previous article: Sentiment in advance of the vote matters now more than ever. Strong Biden (and Kelly) support in both coverage and in momentary preference could extend to preliminary blue votes in a state both familiar and looking to expand its mail-in options. Assuming such a lead, a Biden victory would surely be a Kelly one (although I would strongly guess the latter outperform the former). With such coming to fruition, AZ could have two Blue Senators for the first time since the '40s. That would certainly send a chill down the GOP governor-aspirants looking to replace term limited Ducey in 2022 as well as state house/senate representatives, with the existential dread of a state trending blue. Very well, with the AZ House split stunningly narrow (31-29), even the slightest Dem presidential victory statewide could spell a strong setback for the AZ Republican brand, once seen as the future of suburban America.
UGH. This article was long because this race’s outcome and its implications matter strongly for state and national politics going on. Keep your eyes peeled...
NR
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