SENATE FOR SIMPS, PART 2: The Easy Ones (To Write)

The following can be considered short and sweet novellas, as I find them much less nuanced. These two races are less defined by candidate or campaign (though that is always a factor) and moreso an inevitable partisan realignment back to each state’s current trending.

1. Blue-ish: (CO) Corey Gardner vs. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper

Gardner is a freshmen Senator whose 2014 win over incumbent Mike Udall (of the infamous Udall Family Clan) allowed for Republicans to achieve their still-lasting Senate Majority. Gardner-a two-term congressman-was both impressive and likable in his campaign but I personally hold his victory in blue-ening Colorado to an astoundingly disastrous campaign by the incumbent. Udall very literally could not shut the fuck up about the uterus, working to define an entire race by abortion politics and its policy divergence between he and Gardner. The entire strategy was both bludgeoning insistent and patronizing, proving that centering campaigns on hot button social issues can backfire. Needless to say, in an election personified by the six-year incumbent slump (otherwise known as Obama Fatigue), identity politics were not appealing to the affluent suburbs of Colorado, whose focus lay moreso in the economic sphere.

Mark Udall: Should have rethought that re-election plan...

With Udall’s embarrassing defeat, Gardner took a seat that that we all knew would remain competitive no matter the voting record. It is perhaps ironic then, that after an ousting predicated on base politics to no avail, Gardner himself is suffering from a partisan record that ignored political moderation. Indeed, for the many other vulnerable senators of elections past and this year, Gardner has put the least work into carving out an identity more conducive to his state’s politics than just the national political party’s. Current Governor, Democrat Jared Polis, and his decisive win over Republican Corey Stapleton as well as the expanded blue majorities in the statewide house and senate have proved that the Trump era accelerated Colorado’s movement to the left (Virginia-esque with political power centered in the increasingly red-resistant suburbs). Such unfavorable partisan distinctions alongside Colorado’s further plunge to Team Blue deems Gardner the underdog in an increasingly nationalized environment.

Gardner squirming: Should have practiced what you preached!

Speaking of national partisan fervor, this author once more begs you to remember the 100% Presidential/Senate Party Victory in 2016 - a trait actually proved in Colorado via the re-election of Senior Senator Michael Bennet alongside Hillary Clinton’s win. I, and most analysts, cannot picture Gardner achieving enough crossover appeal to survive alongside a Biden margin of victory similar to Hillary’s, and that is already likely to be expanded with Trump losing steam everywhere. The Dem nominee, former Governor John Hickenlooper, is a safe enough candidate to ride this wave. I wouldn’t say anything about him mandates a strong political enthusiasm.

Happy, Hickenlooper? You're Good Enough

Still, his legislative and political record speaks for itself, and he did eke out an overtime win for a second term the same night that Udall went down in flames. His short lived presidential campaign gave way to national Dem’s preference for him to challenge Gardner, but not before dealing with a serious-enough primary challenge from the farther left. Alth ough a more progressive candidate could likely still win this seat, Dem Senate Influencers (aka Minority Leader Chuck Schumer) see him as a safe ally who is moderate enough to not scare away blue suburbanites. More importantly than just winning, with Hickenlooper, this seat should be locked down in advance of election day, meaning fundraising and PAC donations can be re-allocated to more competitive races elsewhere (an added urgency with the Senate now more in play). Hickenlooper’s win will cement Colorado as a blue bastion for the foreseeable future, aka RIP to another swing state.

1. Red-ish: Doug Jones (Alabama) vs. Former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tubberville;

In the first genuine Dem upset of the Turmp Era (and arguably the beginning of the Blue Wave), Former U.S. Attorney -the Prosecutor of the Birmingham Church Bombing- Doug Jones, defeated AL Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore in the race to replace the open seat left by then-AG Jeff Sessions. Roy Moore, in addition to a history of stunningly unethical jurisprudence (he was kicked off the AL SC Bench MORE than once for refusing to abide by federal judicial decisions related to the likes of gay marriage), beat GOP appointed incumbent Luther Strange -himself appointed by scandal-ridden Governor Robert Bentley, whose marital and financial improprieties booted him from office, despite a Trump endorsement.

Roy Moore: Not a Great Guy

Moore went on to run a disastrous campaign marred by multiple allegations of sexual assaults and borderline pedophilia that saw him lose in what should have been the easiest win in the nation.

I mean really? A Dem in Alabama? Unreal. Sure, the state legislature didn’t transition to Republicans until the late 2000s, but this was due to horrendous gerrymandering (yes, Dems do it too) and a state party culture of conservativism very separate from the increasingly-progressive national party (indeed, many members of the now-strong GOP delegation are themselves party switchers or former registered Democrats). Since such statehouse evolution, both state parties have gotten lazy: AL Dems have become more aligned with the national Dem party, complacent in statewide losses and embarrassing recruitment failures, and AL GOPers have gotten such cozy margins that they barely need lift a finger to clean the clock-until the aforementioned corruption and the Moore and Jones race, that is.

When charting the electoral logistics of this win, it was triggered by two simultaneous factors: 1) Often pointed out (and frankly over-emphasized) by Dems was a superb GOTV campaign targeting African Americans which saw unprecedented numbers come out to vote for Jones , 2) and less so noted by Dems, was a profound dip in turnout from normally red suburbs likely due to a lethal combination of Trump fatigue, midterm blues, and (especially) the plethora of allegations surrounding Moore. Even then, Jones’ victory margin was only 1.6% (with total vote share south of 50%) and everyone ...ever, is confident he will not win again. Frankly, even if Moore had won the primary for a second time, most pundits predicted Jones would still lose-albeit more closely, since suburban fatigue will be counteracted via presidential race and the likely down ballot voting to correspond with it. Furthermore, AL Dems are still infighting and flailing like the nobodies they will soon be again (articles are common detailing infighting over party chairmen picks vs. Jones' preference and so on), while the state GOP party as regrouped and reorganized against the much more competent Governor Kay Ivey, noted across the aisle for being an effective

Sad reaccs for Jeff only

party and state leader. The next Senator of Alabama will be former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tubberville, who crushed Jeff Sessions’ comeback bid by a 20 point margin. Sessions, whose love affairs led to a uh...hate affair with the president, proved politics never pays, especially when allying yourself with someone as transactionally-oriented Donald Trump.

Even Jones himself is aware of this inevitable defeat. Several years ago, this author heard him present a DC book talk in front of a shamefully superficial and self-serving audience. In addition to his passion for civil rights and ‘nice-guy’ energy, Jones enthusiastically proclaimed he was running and would win again. The Junior Senator has never moderated on any voting front whatsoever (which is why I never thought he would win in the first place), even keeping hold of a staunchly pro-choice record, a typical non-starter for Alabamans statewide. His speech last week at the DNC was seen as an effective admission of principles over politics, for any serious re-election contender would have stayed far away from the national convention. One cannot but pride him on his realism.

Don't Be Sad Doug, It's Almost Over