That New York State of Upsets

What should have been a mostly sleepy primary became spicy with stunning results in NY prompting heavy speculation on the soul of the Democrat party. What does it all mean? Heck if I know but if I could sum up thoughts/predictions…

NY: That Primary Drama Was Backwards

It seemed that all the NY election rage this season was convicted ex-congressmen Michael Grimm’s attempted return to his former House seat, via challenging Incumbent Republican Dan Donovan in the GOP primary. This seat is already pretty unusual since it is a New York City-based seat represented by a Republican, but welcome to the conundrum that is Statin Island. Despite his stained reputation, Grimm was running well against Donovan, and polls had the race as at least competitive. If Grimm had won, Dems would have shifted more resources to this seat-it’s certainly competitive in a wave year but the sharp shift towards Trump in 2016 was disheartening. Many operatives believed even the damaged Grimm was a heavy-enough favorite for the General. Regardless, all the speculation was for naught seeing as Grimm was surprisingly crushed by a double-digit margin to Donovan. And he even endorsed Donovan afterwards!

Contrary to this narrative, it was northeast of Statin Island where the stunners came from. In the last couple days before the primary, there were a few typical articles on primary challengers facing the party machine masters in NYC Politics: House Members Joe Crowley, Carolyn Maloney, and Yvette Clark. Expectations for these primary challengers were quite low, as the incumbents are all household names. Crowley himself was seen as a possible future Speaker in the post-Pelosi realm. Instead, he is on his way out of Congress and the other two are likely running scared for 2020 rematches. Mostly unknown out of the district, Hispanic Bernie 2016 aide Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ended up not just winning (despite spending 1/10th of Crowley’s amount) but by a pretty large margin. As for the other two, Clarke made it by a four-point margin and Maloney by the slim double digits, but these results can’t seem too positive if more high-profile candidates come along. Many hot takes have occurred about what it means for the moderate vs liberal members of the party. I see this race and Crowley vs. Ocasio-Cortez as a double dichotomy: The first being the typical liberal vs. conservative setting, but another being an insider vs. outsider mentality, specifically in the New York-style though. Indeed, despite its domineering diversity and bastion of leftism, New York City has always been a very Democratic City as opposed to a very Liberal one. It has longtime incumbents which are quite progressive but not to the Bernie degree (especially as the party has moved left), and they usually fall in line, work together, and keep getting elected…again and again. Ocasio-Cortez is none of this. She is young, completely out of the machine process, liberal to the umpteenth degree, and was a bartender up until a couple months ago. She also fits demographics of this majority-minority district in comparison to the white and older Crowley. So maybe more than a Bernie backer, Ocasio-Cortez is very much a paragon of Modern New York that has always been apparent but never politically recognized…until now. The question then is whether the ideology or the connectivity was the deciding issue. I agree with FiveThirtyEight in that it’s a strong likelihood of both. Perhaps it was just the perfect storm against Crowley, and this is where the line is drawn. Or maybe things change further for Dem primaries. Regardless, we also must keep in mind that the politics of New York State, and New York City in general, are leagues different than the country at large and other states in different regions.

I chuckled to myself in seeing Andrew Cuomo as a bit of a Barbara Comstock about this whole thing. Despite fanfare, his liberal challenger Cynthia Nixon has been pretty disappointing. Yet if Ocasio-Cortez’ win is based more on ideology and therefore results like this can occur with unknown progressive candidates, then the governor better watch for his primary…especially considering he is running for his third term (and has already made a few embarrassing gaffes for such an incumbent). But whether this type of political pushback will reach him remains to be seen and is of an entirely other primary election day (yeah New York is weird).

Amid other votes, things were ok, but Dems did not get there choice in NY-24th. I feel like this is the kind of seat that could flip regardless in wave elation, but it definitely was a double whammy of misfortune for New York Dems that night and certainly leaves many pondering the strength of the overall party machine. Still, the DCCC has gotten all but 2 of their preferred candidates for open seats overall and that is pretty good.

TBD On Whether Dems are OK

Democrats have seen pretty surprising gains in Oklahoma, a state somehow still reddening but splitting votes down ballot. Granted, a lot of it could be state-sourced considering the common 4-day schooling due to education cuts and teacher strikes that led from it. Incumbent Governor Mary Fallin (and former Attorney General Scott Pruitt) speak to a political culture of rampantly conservative fiscal priorities which may be out of style in times of economic expansion like now. However, former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett is anything but such (watch his Tedtalk). He is leading the vote in what will come down to a runoff. If he can pull it out the next round, his style would make him a heavy favorite in the general election, to the chagrin Oklahoma Democrats. If he is able to pull this off, it’s pretty much over for a competitive general election but there will still be a big shift in statewide Republican culture (think Rick Snyder esque in Michigan).

CO: With a scent of NV…

The Year of the Democratic Woman did not spread to Cary Kennedy, Colorado’s State Treasurer and gubernatorial Dem candidate, as she lost to outgoing and crazy rich Congressmen Jared Polis. On the Republican side, Walker Stapleton won an equally contested race in what should set up for an election of very credible competitors. I see Colorado as very similar to Nevada, minus the opportunities for the demographic Republican inroads (college education among whites is one of the largest factors turning this state bluer). That being said, the Democrats have the burden of incumbency with perennially-eh Governor John Hickenlooper hitting term limits. This statewide effect combined with the national atmosphere and Colorado should be competitive but ultimately Dem leaning. Polis being the first gay governor couldn’t hurt but let’s see if his financial background pulls up any demons. Oh, and Dems got there CO-6 candidate which should be incredibly challenging considering incumbent Republican Mike Coffman’s moderate style and ability to continually move politically with his district (such as learning Spanish).

Two Republicans in Good Condition…

Mitt Romney won his Senate primary easily in Utah and will be elected, period. His alternative style has apparently found peace with Trump and it will be interesting to see how he operates in the Senate. As for the MD Governor Primary, the more Bernie-esque candidate, Bean Jealous won despite much support for his opponent. Will it matter? Polling says no, considering Republican Governor Larry Hogan’s crazy popularity. But history is mixed, and most analysts have taken careful deference to it. Compared to say, Massachusetts (with its own popular GOP governor as of now), many Eastern Democratic states have been willing to stab popular incumbents in the back if there is a broader political message to send. Case in point in 2006: incumbent governor Rob Ehrlich had sky high popularity but was still swept away via Martin O’Malley in the Dem ’06 Wave. Similarly, Rhode Island’s Lincoln Chafee had approval in the 60s as senator but also lost in 2006, a message of refute against President Bush. So Jealous could still pull it out historically, but let’s see how those polling numbers develop, especially if Hogan is able to hit or get above 50% in most.

PLUS, on the Supreme Court: Has This Doomed the Dem-Majority Senate?

As if right to work being legalized nationwide couldn’t be devastating enough for Dems, the announcement of Swing Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement has overloaded Republican Joy (just google Mitch McConnell’s face). Despite holding up a Supreme Court nominee over qualms of an upcoming election, McConnell has said he will move smoothly this time cuz why not. And honestly, that’s just sheer politics. Who is in charge will have a massive effect on who and when nominees are confirmed, and it looks like a new very conservative justice will be approved and significantly alter the balance of the court (Court expert Jeffery Toobin says abortion will be illegal in 20 states within 18 months). I believe the hearing and actual vote of this nominee will definitely impede Democratic prospects. Red State Dems will do everything they can to prove they are pro-Trump and voting for this nominee is a great example of such. But in such a harsh political atmosphere, this will no doubt enrage a lot of Democrats, such to the degree that I believe they could stay home on election day and greatly damage these incumbents’ re-election prospects. Granted, Republicans will be happy with these senators’ support of Trump but it’s hard to say this vote could really make the difference in a narrow margin election. At the same time, if Red State Dems somehow don’t vote or hold off the nomination, voters will stick to their red bona fides and vote said incumbents out. It’s a sticky situation that is sure to put many in a hole. And only time and the nominee will tell what these officer holders eventually decide to do.