The Senate in a Snap

Want to get a brief but solid understanding of the current Senate playing field? Well that’s what you are getting this week (amongst dozens of others). An important theme to remember is that in such an environment as this, predictions and possibilities can be unforeseen or incredibly late breaking. But a central theme is…

The Democrat Dichotomy

This is a good year for the left, but all we have been hearing is how Senate Democrats could still lose ranks nonetheless. What gives? Ultimately, it comes down to just poor electoral timing. This class of Senate seats was always a stretch for Dems. Going into the 2012 cycle, Republicans were targeting the Senate after impressive Senate and House gains in 2010. There were a great many vulnerable seats in swing-states, from Casey in PA, an open seat in Wisconsin, Nelson in Florida, and especially the likes of Claire McCaskill in Missouri. In that election, excluding disappointing candidate recruitments in Nevada and Arizona, the Dems cleaned the clock. Not only did vulnerable incumbents and some open-seat swings make it through, but there were even a few extra successes, notably Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. This allowed Democrats to expand their majority to 55. Fast forward after Republicans romped the even playing field of 2014 Senate seats, and Dems have pretty much already done as well as they could in competitive states. And considering the increasingly hyper partisan era we live in, those upset wins seem all the more tenuous (Joe Manchin easily cruised in the 2010 special and 2012, but his survival now is anything but assured). It’s not an elaboration to say breaking even for the Dems would be optimal. It would put them in good standing for when Republicans find themselves overextended (though not to the degree of Dems) in 2020. Without further ado, these 2018 seats are what keep even the most optimistic Dem strategist up at night.

(In my order from most to least vulnerable)

Indiana-Joe Donnelly’s win was always a fluke. He beat Richard Mourdock, who himself had successfully beat incumbent Senator Dick Lugar in a primary, before claiming ‘rape was God’s will.’…yep. This horrendous word choice and overall Tea Party style poisoned Mourdock’s chances. Against GOP Businessman Mike Braun, Donnelly will not only have to put on a good race but go against a really great candidate (far better than the other primary options of Reps. Messer or Rokita). Donnelly has always been a more conservative senator, but he’s in Indiana, and Former Senator Bayh’s disastrous reentry to politics speaks to the disarray that Indiana Democrats currently are in. Joe better pray for a miracle…or a crazy big wave (think Obama winning there in 2008-esque).

Missouri-Skilled or lucky, most analysts ask. I say both. Former MO Auditor McCaskill rebounded from a disappointing gubernatorial loss in 2004 (after successfully primarying Governor Bob Holden) by narrowly defeating incumbent Jim Talent in the 2006 Democrat Wave. McCaskill is moderate, but never to the degree of a Donnelly or Manchin, making her math even tougher in an already-red state. Still, her strategy in playing in the 2012 Republican primary and getting an opponent proclaiming ignorance on rape and pregnancy floated her to reelection (although in my opinion, the national energy was such that she could have won anyway). Missouri Statewide Dems, who coasted along with McCaskill in 2012, saw their essential demise in 2016 amid national polarization, making McCaskill’s challenge harder But Eric Greitens’ alleged affairs and friction with now Senate-candidate Josh Hawley have once again erred on McCaskill’s side. Hawley is a disappointing fundraiser, but with the worst of this governor scandal behind him (via Greiten’s resignation), this race is sure to get more competitive again.

North Dakota-Only Heidi could win as a Democrat here. Spending decades as a political force, first as State Tax Commissioner and then State Attorney General, she eked out a win against Congressmen Rick Berg because he just didn’t seem to get North Dakota (his mean spirited female ads were case-in-point). She has tracked one of the most conservative Dem records, and seems to have done well with it, going so far as to almost be named one of Trump’s Cabinet Members, not to mention appearing on stage with the President during a rally (we will see that one again in ads). But the original disarray of the North Dakotan Republican Senate field cleared when Rep. Cramer changed his mind (again) and did run against her. Cramer isn’t perfect, but he is strong enough and polls have shown him leading or within striking distance despite Heidi’s bona fides. As of now, this one doesn’t look good, but Heitkamp is a political spirit who just gets North Dakota. Plus, don’t underestimate incumbency.

West Virginia-This seat is both less vulnerable than most casual observers would think and more vulnerable than many analysts have supposed. Two powerful fanbases will collide here in November and only God knows whether the Trumpites or Manchanites will prevail. Everyone knows how popular Trump is-his 68.7% share of the vote was absolutely catastrophic for the once-strong WV Democrat party. It appears trying to keep a separate brand has finally faltered as many conservatives Dems switch parties (just look at the D-R Governor). In many ways, this white Rust Belt collective is the ultimate anathema to the modern Democrat Party, but in several ways, so is Joe Manchin. He hails from the days of Democrat Dominance (which started to fall apart when Bush won this state in 2004). Serving as a popular governor, Manchin appointed himself to Robert Byrd’s seat upon said Senator’s death. Despite the Republican surge there, John Raese was unable to put up a strong fight for the ’10 Special, and the ’12 General was all but ignored. Manchin is the real deal: He just goes to gas stations and talks to his constituents, has an incredibly conservative voting record, and boasts a very workable style (he was also almost appointed as a Trump Secretary). But the strong Republican tint of West Virginia has been amplified to the umpteenth level by Trump, meaning even a Democrat like Manchin will see a lot of money thrown against him. As of now, it seems like Manchin is still a significant enough favorite to be ranked lower than the others above.

Montana-That amicable style is perhaps even more household for John Tester, who boasts a strong mantra in MT. His wins may have been narrow, but the unique electoral DNA of Montana has always made it a potential area of support for a special type of Dem. The Democrats have held the governorship for the last 16 years and numerous statewide candidates have won over them. Tester himself has been able to make himself known in this smaller state, and really appeals to his constituents in a Manchin/Heitkamp respect (it should be noted that this is always easier in a small state). What is most interesting about this race is the very weak Republican field (Republicans only got their, like, fifth choice) as well as both sides recognizing this race is going to be much easier for Tester than it should be. For now, Tester seems good, but I do believe he himself has been a bit too presumptive of his chances (as evinced by some more liberal votes as of late).

Florida-Bill Nelson and everyone else knows the only reason this race is competitive is because of Rick Scott. And Rick Scott makes this race competitive due to his persona, but I think more so due to his ridiculous capacity to self-fund. The outgoing Governor is, frankly, loaded, and although never tremendously popular, his numbers have eked up and money is always successful in making the difference. The state of Florida is an electoral hodgepodge of every demographic and sub group, making attempts to find a good candidate for either side challenging. As I wrote in my Dem Nomination writeup, it seems like wealthy individuals are usually the best bet for the Sunshine State. And where Nelson lacks in wealth he makes up in incumbency. Especially with the Parkland shooting shifting the narrative significantly in Florida, I will be interested to see how this race develops. Ultimately, I see it as an inevitable red herring for Dems: In this environment, I don’t think Scott will win (but recent polls should be scaring Nelson!), but its close enough to result in Dems wasting precious capital on pushing Nelson towards a narrow but nonetheless capable win. And if Dems are diverting resources from other races, who is the real loser?

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?-I put this two together because they are two that really aren’t competitive anymore. As for the former, down ballot candidates have done stunningly well there and although Baldwin is a bit liberal for Wisconsin, it seems her numbers (and honestly her incredibly lackluster opponents) should be good enough for her to win, albeit narrowly for a state that used to be solidly blue. And in Pennsylvania, a typical waste! Bob Casey Jr. is moderate enough and well-liked, but a capable Republican Party could have definitely put this in play. Instead, the GOP stunningly sleepwalked in what would seem like their best chance to win power, choosing silly nominees for Governor and especially for Senate. Lou Barletta is certainly Trump-esque in his policy, but he lacks the style and outsider mantra. Especially in a year of energized Dems, Barletta’s gaffes and poor style will just undermine an otherwise potent race. Although this shouldn’t be surprising-I am a resident of PA and if there is one thing constant in that political scene, it is the two parties completely embarrassing themselves.

Dem Pickups? As mentioned, Arizona and Nevada are ripe on this list. It looks like mainstream Rep-McSally will be her party’s candidate after moving to the right and facing a divided Trump candidate field. Even so, this all-star candidate (Comstock-esque) will struggle in an environment such as this and especially against a Democrat as equally capable as Sinema. Considering the differences in uniting the base, I have to see Sinema as a narrow favorite. But this is truly a battle of the Titans: Think NH Senate 2016. In Nevada, as I mentioned in my primary writeups, Heller moved to the right for naught and faces a generic Democrat that should be able to ride a wave. This one should be the easier of the two. Lastly is Tennessee. The Volunteer State has never been redder, but that style of Republicanism varies from the national brand. Indeed, outgoing-Senator Corker’s style and policy is significantly different from his wannabee-replacement Marsha Blackburn. This could leave an opening for a good-old days candidate, like crazy popular Two-term Dem Governor Phil Bredesen, to slide in. It will be an uphill task, but it is fair to say this one is no Evan Bayh candidacy. Bredesen is smart, legitimate, and will also force Republicans to spend money even if he doesn’t cross the finish line (perhaps a counterbalance to Florida).