The World This Week (July 23rd-29th)

Georgia Gov Pt. 2

As this Georgian runoff drew to a close, it seemed almost inevitable that Secretary of State Brian Kemp will prevail (so much so that I am writing this without a confirmation of victory!). The once unstoppable Lt. Governor Casey Cagle has in fact been found to be quite stoppable as his prospects have torpedoed with numerous, numerous ethical scandals, audiotapes, and a late breaking Trump endorsement for his opponent. The endorsement by Trump was smart, as it looked like the race was already breaking Kemp’s way and again, I mean, Cagle was just awful. From his horrible demeaner, to audio that admitted he passed legislation just for political gain, this guy seems like a terrible candidate that could easily be overwhelmed in a Democrat wave. Sure, I suppose his honesty was commendable, but he ultimately had a gruff style without the Trump Touch. With Kemp, Democrat gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams’ victory is still possible (recent polls in Trump-friendly territory prove there is room for Democrats), but it’s a lot harder. Kemp is not perfect either but will be a much stronger candidate than Cagle. This turn means that GA is one state with odds much better for Republicans, especially since midterms always see strong turnout in areas that favor the Georgia GOP. But once more, anything is possible.

The Other Runoffs

Women ruled today with Democrat Lucy McBath defeating Kevin Abel in a runoff in order to challenge Karen Handel in GA-6, which became infamous during the record-shattering special election last year. In this year’s race, McBath largely rallied the base through her strong pro-gun control narratives (especially with the death of her son in relation to it) plus a mere million dollars from a Bloomberg SuperPAC. I think this type of politics could potentially turn off an educated redder district like this, but if Stoneman Douglas has had an actual effect at turning the tide of suburban views on gun control, it could conversely end up being an asset. But much of the thought of this race is still rooted in last year’s special election. That race was between Handel herself and Democrat celeb-for-five-minutes John Ossoff. There were so many counter narratives going on in this race that it was infuriating, but ultimately, both candidates last year were ‘aight.’ Ossoff channeled a lot of different political vibes, but that is mostly because of what people wanted to see in him rather than his own political acumen. He didn’t live in the district and his whole style was still out of touch with the Southern roots of this seat. Handel ran-and lost-for just about everything, meaning she had loads of experience, especially on Republican divisions, but she was just one more loss away from being the Martha Coakley of the left. In that race, the district stuck with its GOP history and elected Handel. Will this happen again? Most analysts think not. Some of that I think is purely fatigue from an all-encompassing special election that seemed to hype everyone up and then fail to deliver any large-scale changes (at the time). In reality, that race was incredibly early in the cycle and neither Democrat energy nor GOP disappointment was as fully set in as it is now. I would put this race as Leans Republican, but I think its chances of being swept in a wave are much higher than most analysts would admit. In even tougher terrain is GA-7, with Carolyn Bourdeaux also defeating her male Democrat counterpart. I wouldn’t exect too much to come of this (R+9 in a very polarized district), but waves mean possibilities (especially for a suburban setting like this one), and this seat could definitely have more potential down the line.

Playboys in Pakistan

Celebrities are in the house in Southern Asia, with former Cricket Star Imran Khan’s PTI party surging to 1st place in Pakistan’s election. Were they fair? Likely not. Were they rigged? Well, every party except the PTI seems to think so, but it’s not like the army, responsible for a genuine deep state in Pakistan, has not interfered in doing such before. It is very clear that the army hated Nawaz Sharif and his family, which basically controlled the ruling PML-N Party. Sharif himself was removed over petty corruption charges by the Supreme Court (likely at the behest of the army), before returning from abroad to be dramatically arrested. This peculiar move was likely an electoral ploy to embody himself as a martyr…a move that he is sorely regretting at this point.

Regardless of fairness, it seems the PTI is bound to form a governing coalition and therefore offer a fresher face to the young country. Khan is close with the army, meaning the foreign and economic policy that they have steered will likely stay the same, but other domestic reforms could be in the works. Whether ethical or not, it may be good just for Pakistan to have another leader in the spotlight. And in the words of a well-versed Pakistani I know, it was good to have a mostly peaceful transition and moment of democracy even despite the rigging accusations. Progress comes in steps, not leaps.

Woes to Spanish Conservatives? Is Casado Macron or Kurz?

The PP’s leadership elections, pitting younger conservative Pablo Casado against mainstream continuity candidate Soraya Sáenz de Santamaria, resulted in a win for Casado and his vision of overhauling the PP as a more conservative party. Such a decision, in my opinion, could not come at a worse time, as the PP already feels itself doubly-pressed by both a resurgent Socialist party and the rising center party Ciudadanos. Young new outsiders always seem to get the comparison to centrist reformer Emanuel Macron, but I personally think Casado is much more like current Austrian PM, Sebastian Kurz. Also young, but not so much an outsider, Kurz moved his People’s Party farther to the right, before building a coalition with the even farther right Freedom Party of Austria. Alas, I do not think Casado can channel the electability of either of the above leaders, mostly because this is Spain. And Spain (as well as Portugal) is still less than 50 years out of military dictatorships that made far right parties anathema to these younger democracies. This is why Casado’s movement to the right is so queer…where exactly is he moving to? As a Ciudadanos spokesperson said himself, the party is moving to a place where there are no votes to pick up. This is only a golden opportunity for the centrist party to sweep in and provide itself as a new standard bearer while the PP falls off its self-imposed cliff. Casado’s social conservatism and style are only nails in the coffin for a party that is already mired in inadaptability and corruption. Speaking of which, Casado’s biggest scandal is that he achieved a master’s degree in perhaps unethical ways, meaning his credibility is just as mired as his predecessor. Ironically, in claiming to be a split from the past, Casado may end up being the type of continuity that drives the PP into irrelevance. But stay tuned for upcoming local elections-right now the Socialists are leading polling with PP and Ciudadanos close behind.